BOZmail 11th AUGUST – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY AUGUST 11th  2020 



Currently stands at : 21.4376 points (+1.4376 points)



Currently stands at : 14.4653 points (+6.4653 points)



Currently stands at : 4.705 points (-0.295 points)


SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)


Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)


Local Track Factor Section = (-0.53 points)


BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +6.6089 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +10.8965 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 39/50 = 78%  Backs : 6/23 = 26.08%



8-10 PERTH

Welcome relief from the gloom on Monday. Didn’t get the prices I wanted but on a winner is the main thing. Well done those who also worked out the forecast. That will be part of my second half of the year recovery programme once the NH consistency kicks in ( not quite there yet. Still a few steps forward and a bit of a step back!). Also picked up on another big tool for the NH recovery programme which is the jockeys Mick Fitzgerald coaches. Our TV pundit friend is bringing on a seriously good school of claimers now and is a very good coach and a good exponent of the importance of self belief if you saw him talking after our winner on Monday. Good advice to us all.

So LIM gets a quick repair job. Fingers crossed we can still do that August boost exercise I mentioned. Looks like it won’t be achieved by playing every day but I intend to be selective for a few weeks now to give it a chance. The NH action is getting closer to consistency. Sadly the fall of Croco Bay in the race highlights the downside still. A horse running at his wrong course by necessity I feel. Sad news for connections on such a good old servant and condolences to all concerned there.

We move on to Tuesday night at Perth.

I did look long and hard at the Novice Chase at 5-05 as the only official LIM qualifier at the meet and without another bet to go at, I would have gone there. Taking the fav on involves some risk (long distance traveller – is that a positive or a necessity at the moment? – hard to say) but I quite like the play and Dr Hooves is a possible back.

But I still want to stay tight at this stage and see a back to back success to convince me NH consistency is not far away before I take too many risks. For that I’ll stand by my long term investment in Lady Bowes. Not really an LIM race being a bumper again and one where the fav is the main and a strong danger on form (given that there are also horses involved it is impossible to assess) so stake has been the main wrestle having decided that I’m with LB as part of my long term investment plan. With more in the pot, I’d be tempted to go strong but on balance this is a belief bet more than anything. The belief being that she’ll land me a mighty prize at some point if I keep the faith. That I intend to do.

There are some good portents. Ground is currently good to soft and more thundery showers forecast between now and the off which should suit. Not so obviously a plus for Headscarf Lil – the main danger. They are fairly evenly matched on what form we’ve got – LB’s run at Carlisle versus Lil’s at Wetherby favours us slightly. Lil however does have a smart run at Musselburgh behind Zakharova on good ground on her record and Hughes on board makes her dangerous and a worthy odds on shot perhaps.Not laying that to keep my liability down. I’m happy to see Charlotte on LB. Quite apart from the 7lb claim she brings, it means the stable are serious. She is their number one now and the ride she gave on Lough Kent last week when stable money was down was decent. Just bumped into one there and was unlucky and the 16/1 down to 11/2 was mainly each way money anyway I’m told. LB is probably an each way play too really but I’ll not bother with that at the prices. I believe in her (flighty madame though she can be and will need Charlotte to teach her a thing or two here perhaps. Tendency to go on and off bit needs addressing) and stable/jockey likewise. I also believe in my ability to spot one and I’m sure the way she stayed on at Hexham and Carlisle makes her one of them. The more rain we get the better. She has big feet! So prayers and rain dances will all help!

And enjoy the ride. This game is long term. For me. Patience required and discipline when things get tough as they’ve got this year. I’m not going daft betting wise on balance. I shall enjoy roaring her in though if she runs well!


0.125pt BACK on LADY BOWES (around 3.8 or better if you can get it)  

LIM scores for August:

1st :  NO BET

2nd : +0.0886  (+0.0886) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   +0.0245  (+0.1131) Lay @ 3.75

4th:   +0.385    (+0.4981) Lays @ 3.75 & 3.3 :Backs @ 15.0 & 3.75

5th:   +0.0671 (+0.5652) Lay @ 2.38 & 14.0 : Backs @ 19.0 & 4.0

6th:    NON RUNNER

7th:    +0.049  (+0.6142) Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 7.0

8th:    -0.475 (+0.1392) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.4

9th:    NO BET

10th:  +0.441 (+0.5802) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 8.0


BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)


Uncle Jumbo – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way 

Battleground – Entered for  Curragh (Aug 22&Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar – Entered at Chepstow(Aug 14)

Custard The Dragon

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 



Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Lord Condi 

Saint Sam (FR)


Pisgah Pike

El Presente


Young Wolf


Little Jessture

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Global Tour

Samsons Reach

Leoncavallo – Entered at Pontefract (Aug 14)

Longhouse Sale


5-30 HAYDOCK – LEONCAVALLO @ 5/1 – 0.15pt BACK

Get the best price that you can and hedge accordingly and when appropriate as preferential odds are offered.

This is a kind of where we are at the moment type of play as Leoncavallo got on my list to be followed over hurdles where he was mighty impressive again LTO. I can understand Pipe thinking him good enough to win again on the flat though and owners keen to go down that route to try and win more prize money. He did run well at Sandown start of summer for which he is penalised however and task made thus harder. Should be scope to trade however as likely to be popular with punters and market watch should be rewarded. It is a competitive race. He’ll do well to win it but as I say, turning us a trade profit should be easier. Get on early perhaps and get as big a price as you can to play with.


LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points


April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points


June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  (+2.7744points)

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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