BOZmail – 10th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 10th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.0715 points after month 9 (+37.0715 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +11.8667 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +56.5195 points

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LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

2-40 WORCESTER

Sticking to one’s guns paid off on Monday despite the continuing lack of ability to pick a winner. Happens and at these times with LIM, I switch to focus on securing stability in the lay picks which have fallen below target in recent weeks. Very much the LIM backstop brought to the fore in times of trouble. I go there on Tuesday with that slight switch in approach also although there is instability in the pricing market as I write so keep an eye on that. I was keen on the 7/2 back price posted by BET 365 on Landsman after his encouraging chase debut effort at Southwell but that price looks to have been an error. Snap it up if its still there though when you check. Others have him best price 11/8 fav which would be my market level too given the inexperience of the other two. King’s horses have been in fine fettle on the flat of late so I’ll keep Passing Call on side given his trainer’s class with jumpers and I take on Byron Flyer who is Bet 365’s 5/4 fav but a general 15/8 elsewhere and although doing alright on the flat this summer and arguably slightly the best of these over hurdles, would almost certainly be preferring half a mile further and could well get tapped for toe in this unless jumping spectacularly. Not many do that on chase debut and he’s a clear lay for me here.

Recommendations:

0.35pt LAY on BYRON FLYER (around 2.9 but may well start lower : no greater than 3.1)

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This month plays so far:

1st:    -0.24 (-0.24)  Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 34.0  

2nd:   -0.25 (-0.49)  Back @ 2.2

3rd:    NO PLAY DAY 

4th:    +0.49 (+0.0) Lay @ 1.9  

5th:    -0.44 (-0.44) Lay @ 1.88    

6th:    -0.19 (-0.63) Lay @ 1.38

7th:    -0.542(-1.172) Lay @ 2.12 : Back @ 9.0

8th:     -0.6 (-1.772) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 12.0

9th:     +0.34(-1.432) Lay @ 1.75 : Backs @ 11.0 & 18.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 155/236 = 65.67% :   BACKS: 44/160 = 27.50%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points. Transferred now to starting bank for SHORTLIST SYSTEM PERMED ACCA BET which will start sometime this month.Still watch only for the time being but encouragement again at Newton Abbot on Monday with the last three winners once more and 4/6 overall. Worcester wouldn’t be a first rank course but is on the subs bench so we watch and see again for a couple more days before making a decision what to pursue.

THE BOZMAIL 2019 PERMED ACCA from the Shortlist System for 10/9/19 at Worcester:

2-10 Monty’s Award – Caroline’s Charm – Malangen – Regulation

2-40 Landsman

3-10 Skeaping – New Millenium – Hallings Comet – Camlad Kingfisher

3-40 Sunset Showdown – Danboru – Beau Sancy

4-10* Queens Magic

4-45 Cardy – Shanksforamillion

THE BOZMAIL 2019 PERMED ACCA from the Shortlist System for 9/9/19 at Newton Abbot:

2-25 Rococo River (2nd) – Jacamar (1st) – Bathiva (4th)

3-00 Black Anthem (3rd) – Market Road (4th) – Mr Satco (5th)

3-30 Theatrebar (unplaced) – Time for Ben (pulled up injured)

4-00 Capitoul (1st) – Vancouver (3rd)

4-30 Royals & Rebels(unplaced) – Midnight Magic (2nd) – Game Line (1st)

5-05 Sizing Tara (1st) – Chance It

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Miss Celestial – Entered at Doncaster (Sep 13) & Curragh (Sep 28)

Deirdre – Entered at Leopardstown (Sep 14)&Longchamp (Oct 6) &Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

James Watt – Entered for Ayr Gold Cup (Sep 21)

Lord of the Lodge 

Mum’s Tipple – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 14) & Newbury (Sep 21)

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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