BOZmail – 10th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THURSDAY OCTOBER 10th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.666 points after month 9 (+37.666 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +13.2887 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +58.536 points

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LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY 

3-50 WORCESTER

Well, I can tell you posthumously that Wednesday went well. Apart from the price drift on Beau Sancy again which meant you had to move quick. I mentioned Gone Platinum was my back for that race and I jettisoned it because of bank management but I also jettisoned it from staggered acca! So we are still alive in that. Sometimes it is very definitely the bets you don’t have! The other two races I was working on Wednesday also went to the horses I’d sorted as winners but both very short favs. One of those could have been a staggered acca consideration but neither were. My one for that yesterday was Gone Platinum who ran a seriously disappointing race. Bullet dodged!

So October LIM makes it back to plus score by tortuous route. Punished for the Nietzsche pick on day one I have certainly been but as always, no panic. Steady recovery. Ready again nine days later to try and launch the month!

I do like this novice hurdle at Worcester but I am writing early again (not available this evening) and without the proper tissue so I may do a revision of this play in the morning if the market is not as expected.

I’m expecting Storm Arising to be favourite and to be very short priced in view of the way Nicholls’ horses hit the ground running yesterday. I’ve made hay in the past opposing overbet Nicholls’ horses and if this looks one of those, feel free to wade in.

He looks vulnerable to me after failing to carry his penalty LTO. Slipped at the final hurdle and lost his chance that day but beaten at the time by Jeremy Scott’s Hey Bud who was benefiting from step up in trip but hadn’t been anything special previously and time of that win wasn’t great in context of this race either. Storm Arising went off 1/2  that day and that kind of price again and we definitely oppose to the stakes I suggest here.

Three I think who can be very competitive against him. David Maxwell had Chef D’Equipe against him that day so has a line and this Dolphin Square looks a much better bet also likely to benefit from step up in trip. He carries double penalty but has been on an upward curve and looks set to continue as one of Philip Hobbs’s stronger sorts.

There are two unexposed ones too that can be fancied in Mossy Fen and Shanroe in Milan and I might be advising a back in the morning when I’ve seen prices on offer.

But for now, and if you don’t hear any more from me, a simple but strongish lay on Storm Arising.

Recommendation:

0.5pt LAY on STORM ARISING (around 2.5 : No greater than 2.8)

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 170/260 = 65.38% :   BACKS: 49/175 = 28.0%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    -0.838 (-0.838) Lay @ 2.68 : Back @ 3.3

2nd:   -0.216 (-1.054) Lay @ 2.08

3rd:    +0.245(-0.809) Lay @ 1.66

4th:    +0.144(-0.665) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

5th:    +0.294 (-0.371) Lay @2.62

6th:    +0.145 (-0.226) Lay @ 4.09 : Back @ 5.0

7th:    -0.408 (-0.634) Lay @ 1.88 : Back @ 13.0

8th:    +0.558(-0.076) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 2.76

9th:    +0.196(+0.12) Lay @ 3.75

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.41 points. 

Will shout as soon as third leg emerges.

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Raya Time

Tea Clipper

Nube Negra

Ballymoy

Verdana Blue

Maire Banrigh

Wenceslaus

Tokaramore

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WINTER ALL WEATHER HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

The Grey Goat

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Deirdre – Entered at Ascot(Oct 19)

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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