BOZmail 10th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet &

Daily coverage of The 2020 French Open Women’s Tennis tournament @ ROLAND GARROS (Live on ITV 4)

SATURDAY OCTOBER 10th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +29.1285 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 25.4261 points (+5.4261 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 32.8879 points (+24.8879 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.9635 points (-0.0365 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 86/122 = 70.49%  Backs : 22/74 = 29.72%

3-22 CHEPSTOW

….Euchen Glen also likes getting a toe in…..

It wouldn’t be a BOZ recovery if there wasn’t an element of Murphys Law in it. Glad to hear from those of you that know me better than I do by now who backed Euchen Glen at 18/1 and bigger. In a four horse race.Especially well done to those who thought to cover the gigantic forecast opportunity (£142-36). That was excellent thinking. Value value value as always. Follow the three Vs! I put the race up. Delighted to see those of you carrying my thinking further. That, as they say, is how it should be.

And so we manage to nip the losing run in the bud by going back to LIM roots. Taking on the serious shorties was in the embryo of LIM thinking and I’ll confess to having lost sight of that a bit this year. Had my vision deflected somewhat I think. Am conscious of missing a few other raging shorties I should have been taking on (Getaway Trump at Fontwell in a 3 runner race springs to mind) and not sure really why I have been shying away from them. Some sort of irrational fear. Can’t blame the distrust of flat racing after lockdown for missing Getaway Trump although it has applied to a few others. And not having the flat as an option after lockdown has seriously hampered the LIM daily selection process I can confirm that. Maybe my reaction to the experience in June was an overly extreme one. I was so used to not having LIM losing months that I over reacted as one loomed. Maybe I had to let that loss happen in June. Hindsight always a wonderful thing. All I can say is that something clicked back into gear with me on Friday. That was LIM working as it was designed to with the added frisson of me picking the wrong danger to back! Although I did have the satisfaction of seeing Highland Chief also go past in the dying strides to condemn the St Leger winner to last place. If he does go in the soft, he certainly doesn’t go in the soft at York! And it does get a special sort of soft on the Knavesmire as all you Yorkshiremen and women already know!  

Anyroad up, even though I only got it half right (two thirds you could argue as I did give Euchen Glen and his toe a mention!) I think it’s fair to say I’m back in business on the flat. Expect to see a few more proper LIM bets in the weeks ahead that don’t involve jumping as I determine not to rely so exclusively on NH Racing. LIM was designed for both and works on both. If lockdown did muck about with it, let’s hope we’ve seen the back of that now.  

Onward to the Cesarewitch day at Newmarket and appropriately a jumper we’ve had on our lists with an engagement at HQ awaiting for a while now (see below for that).

We head back to the jumps with LIM for a mouthwatering Novice Chase at Chepstow. Little doubt about our back who has been the best jumper we’ve seen on our list so far this year and comes for a test against the big boys now. All the form of his three wins has been franked with two of the vanquished winners NTO and the other the winner of a listed hurdle in his past showing Longhouse Sale as pacy as well as a jumper to savour. Times with all the others do hold up ok and 5/1 gives us value. Did consider a double lay of the two favs but will keep Henderson’s Fusil Raffles as our LIM cover as he also has hurdling class and some chase experience already under the belt. Might not appreciate fully the step up in trip and some would say Longhouse also has some question mark there as did have to get pushed to go past The Butcher LTO but he was giving weight there and thus to be expected. I’d say he saw the trip out ok and with decent ground again at Chepstow forecast, I think he could give us an exciting thrill ride here if he is in the Maire Banrigh class as looks decidedly possible. Grand Sancy and Paint the Dream are neither of them out of calculations if the race is run to their strengths which allows the lay on Fiddlerontheroof who is a high class chase prospect for owners whose charge took a nasty fall at Chepstow on Friday in the race won by new to follow horse Flic Ou Voyou. Power came over to ride both and will be looking for better luck on Fiddler who was the top hurdler of these and does look to be made in the chasing mold but he has those two negatives in first time over fences and preference for softer ground to overcome on top of the long lay off and opposition experienced over the larger obstacles which undoubtedly makes him a short priced fav and our lay of the day.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on FIDDLERONTHEROOF ( around 2.7)

0.1pt BACK on LONGHOUSE SALE (around 6.0)  

LIM SCORES FOR OCTOBER:

1st: NO BET

2nd: +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 4.1

3rd:  -0.18     (+0.016) Lay @ 2.2

4th:  +0.147  (+0.163) Lay @ 4.4

5th: NO BET

6th: NO BET

7th:  -0.54     (-0.377) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 16.5

8th:  -0.392  (-0.769) Lay @ 2.12

9th: +0.441  (-0.328) Lay @ 1.25 : Back @ 8.0

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FRENCH OPEN TENNIS PREVIEW: (THE FINAL)

Kvitova was poor in her semi and didn’t test Kenin much and my take on the final is that if it comes down to tennis, the Polish power game will be too much for the street fighting American. Kenin is gutsy however and has both a fine tennis intelligence and an excellent consistency at making the lines and keeping the ball in play. That’s when she has time on it however. If Swiatek takes that time away I’m guessing the Pole’s big hitting fore and backhand will go through Kenin the same way it went through Halep and the two qualifiers just dismissed. Kenin’s chance of course comes in whether Swiatek gets mentally affected or nervous of the occasion. It commonly gets newbies and Kenin has the advantage of having already handled a slam final. Her maiden one which she won. Her head is pretty solid. Swiatek has seemed to be here so far. Working out what needs to be done. She has gotten nervy in the past however in early days on the adult tour. Will that come back to get her here? In front of the tiny crowd? I’d be surprised but it is certainly Kenin’s main chance.

If you want to do some levelling up of the profit position, I leave that decision to you. I’m tempted by 0.4pt Lay on Iga at 1.72 to reduce her winnings by 0.2752points but I haven’t done it yet. Because of the losing LIM patch I’ve hit, I’m keen for the tennis boost to be as big as poss. I may even trade some of my Kenin position on any advantageous Swiatek prices that emerge in play if the Pole does go behind or have an early wobble. Just 0.1pt or 0.2pt point I would imagine. I think I prefer that option to levelling up a bit now. My faith and my hope is in Iga. She looks every bit the real deal if her head holds and she does have a 1-0 back score over Kenin from Junior days here at the Garros. Could be a good final though. Good Luck whichever way you play.

And Good Luck Iga!

Outrights Portfolio Position:

Iga Swiatek  (+1.805)

Sofia Kenin (+0.605) 

FRENCH OPEN ACCAS =   -0.4pts

FRENCH OPEN TRADES = +1.3121pts

FRENCH OPEN OUTRIGHTS PORTFOLIO = 

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Oct 24)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Plainchant(FR)

Aramhes(FR)

HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on FRIDAY:

2-25 Newmarket – Alicestar @ 16/1 – 0.1pt BACK – LOST

Backed @ 26.0 : hedged 0.13pt @ 19.8 :  P/L =  +0.0294points

Tried hard for most of race but fell away at finish and looks in need of shorter and lesser company. Didn’t like softer ground either. Probably safe to lose from list for now with a couple of trade profits made. Will pop up again though I’d say in lesser company. Now that my flat mojo is back, I will keep this one in notebook for future when race entry is a tad less ambitious. 

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike 

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Leoncavallo – Entered @ The Curragh (Oct 11)

Longhouse Sale 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius 

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said

Leapaway  

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Redford Road

Not That Fuisse(good/good to soft)

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething

Wenceslaus

Jury out on Legends Ryde’s run. Probably wants shorter. No doubting McFabulous however. He is exactly that. We’ll win a big race with him somewhere along the line this winter.

NH HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SATURDAY:

3-35 NEWMARKET – LEONCAVALLO @ 10/1 – 0.25pt BACK

Get the best price that you can and hedge as appropriate and when preferential odds are on offer.

Won for us once on the flat already and goes for the big one in the cavalry charge here. Aimed at it and trained for it for a while now by the handicap maestro himself Mr David Pipe. Nearly as good as his Dad was. Both masters of their craft. Should like the ground. Certainly like the distance and we saw in that chase at Stratford what latent speed the horse has. But for the jockey booking, I think I’d have been going back only. Mullen is ok but introduces an element of doubt and so trade option for me. Half stake back before the off and some left for in play is the advice as I do fancy the chances of the horse. At a career high level on the flat but won at much higher over jumps and they haven’t targeted him for this without reason. Stable think they have a strong chance. My race read, such as it is in a field of this size, gives him a strong each way chance.Back like that if you prefer. I’ll be gearing up for one of my in play finishes if he’s there at the death. A second 1.01 is a bit much to hope for but it has that as a possible look to it pre race. Don’t forget to keep the option in your armoury.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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