BOZmail 10th NOVEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

TUESDAY NOVEMBER 10th  2020

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +44.9132 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 29.3899 points (+9.3899 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 45.2238 points (+37.2238 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.4485 points (-0.5515 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 105/143 = 73.42%  Backs : 29/92 = 31.52%

12-45 HUNTINGDON

Decent call again Monday with Oscar Rose indeed the one showing the class and we managed value as well as her price went on the drift and money came for the clearly second best Jubilympics.

On to Tuesday and a glut of LIM qualifiers but no simple one and I have thought hard and long about which way to play to keep the winning streak going. And after a stake lay on Monday, I choose another hardcore LIM concept on Tuesday in the two horse race. Usually a couple of these each year but I think I’m right in saying this is the first of 2020. I come down on it because all the qualifiers lend towards winning favourites on Tuesday and this does at least offer us a low price second fav to lay! 

Arguably there isn’t a cigarette paper between the two’s chance on form. Both have history of jumping errors. Master Tommytucker did get pathological in that department but seemed to achieve something in getting round last time behind the talented Al Dancer. For me that is the stand out form – with Precious Cargo still to prove he stays this distance – and with top jockeys and trainers for both, I think it does come down to the marginal preference in horses. Wind Op and recent outing does favour Master Tommytucker who does exhibit class for me so when he stands up, he looks the one to show it and I was encouraged by that effort last time. Wasn’t without a blemish but he has learned to stand up maybes and that makes him my pick for the day. Wouldn’t be a huge bet race again mind. Just an attempt to keep the winning streak going.

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on PRECIOUS CARGO (around 2.1 or shortest price you can get) 

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LIM Scores for November:

1st: +0.049 (+0.049) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 8.8

2nd: NO BET

3rd: +0.1543 (+0.2033) Back @ 2.05

4th:  NO BET

5th:  +0.098   (+0.3013) Lay @ 1.98 : Backs @ 9.0 & 51.0

6th:  +0.4312 (+0.7325) Lay @ 3.4 : Backs @ 6.8 & 13.5

7th:  +0.196   (+0.9285) Lays @ 4.0 & 3.35

8th:  +0.098   (+1.0265) Lay @2.1 : Back @ 8.4

9th:  +0.4606 (+1.4871) Lay @ 3.7 : Back @ 4.2

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Wild Polly

Straw Fan Jack 

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou 

Soaring Glory 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Sangha River

Captain Tom Cat

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike – Entered @ Cheltenham (Nov 15)

Young Wolf

Sirobbie    

Soldier of Love (3m 2f)

Lady Bowes(soft)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy) – Entered @ Ayr (Nov 11)

Charm Offensive 

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said

Mrs Hyde 

Return Ticket(flat track)

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething – Entered @ Newcastle (Nov 13)

Boothill

Al Dancer – Entered@ Cheltenham (Nov 14) & King George (Dec 26)

Onemorefortheroad – Entered@ Taunton (Nov 12)

Stormy Ireland -Entered for Bangor (Nov 11)

Eldorado Allen

For Pleasure

Fidelio Vallis (softish ground)

Ucanaver

Ribble Valley

Shan Blue

Snow Leopardess

Marble Sands

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy)

Summerville Boy

Ga Law

Hitman

NH HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on MONDAY:

2-15 KEMPTON – ENRICHISSANT @4/1 – 0.25pt BACK

Backed @ 8.2 : hedged 0.1pt @ 6.2 & 0.25pt @ 4.2 : P/L = +0.098points

Did take some in running after getting on at 8.2 and got out at 4.2 with profit and marked some 1.1 and 1.01 just in case he did get involved in the finish with 0.48 points on my side for the win. Can’t say I ever felt it likely although he jumped well enough but stable form has manifested itself with both him and Wenceslaus I think. So I take both – and Zamani – off the list for now to be brought back on once the stable form improves.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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