BOZmail – 10th MAY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

FRIDAY MAY 10th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stands at 40.8925 points after month 5

LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY NO PLAY DAY

Was calling Thursday a disaster day after Bryony defied me and rode another of her pearlers. Well done if you stayed out due to the drift. Unfortunately I got on and was unable to effect a satisfactory in running hedge so must bear the brunt again and LIM is in a serious slump to start May. No panic but an apposite time to call a no play day with just one qualifying race in all the fare on Friday and that the Huxley stakes at Chester which looks to me to likely go to the fav.

Of course the main error on Thursday was playing the races the wrong way round as the staggered acca was won by my stated fancy and saw the lay flop as predicted but if I had switched them, the staggered acca would now have been down and all of a sudden I do think maybe I have something going there now as we effectively achieve three legs in a row if you count the clawback first leg (which I don’t! But even so, the switch to lays is working so far).

My first plan for Friday was to study the Huxley and play that on the acca but although I came down to thinking the fav would win, there is a slight doubt about him at the distance and the Johnston horse is a young improver so not a weapons grade back and in any case, I’m keen to keep that acca attempt as a lay only now with 0.8478 points going forward to the next leg liability which is £84.78 in BOZmoney and that’s a good wedge for a lay and I want a good quality pick to match it.

I’ll be looking for that on Saturday and may give LIM a brief rest as I use the time to study what’s been going wrong over the past week and a bit. My first thought is to cut the jumps out for a bit but that may be a sweeping statement as we had a winner in that code at Kelso Thursday. More wrong than just summer jumping I think and I’ve no wish to eat into BLWM profits any further so I might wait for better times with LIM for a few days and see if I can’t engender the excitement of a staggered acca instead.

More news on Friday night with what I’ve managed to find for the weekend – starting of course with a couple of to follow horses due out – most notably Hiroshima at Lingfield. Will be looking hard to see if he might get us out of this mini-slump!

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This month plays so far:

1st:   -0.455 (-0.455) LAY @ 2.82

2nd:  -0.3    (-0.755) LAY @ 1.6

3rd:   -0.628 (-1.383) LAY @ 2.76 : BACK @ 34.0

4th:   -0.8    (-2.183) LAY @ 3.4 : BACK @ 7.0

5th:   +0.095 (-2.088) LAY @ 1.95 : BACK @ 9.0

6th:   -0.3    (-2.388) LAY @ 2.2

7th:   +0.095 (-2.293) LAY @ 1.94 : BACK @ 5.1

8th:   +0.19  (-2.103) BACK @ 1.95

9th:   -0.825  (-2.928) LAY @ 3.25 : BACK @ 8.4

10th: NO PLAY DAY

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 98/142 = 69.01% :   BACKS: 23/92 = 25%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

King of Comedy – Entered for St James Palace,Ascot (June 18)

Land of Legends – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Edaraat – Entered for Thirsk (May 11)

Moonlight Spirit – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for the Yorkshire Cup (May 17) & Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Hiroshima – Entered for the Lingfield Derby Trial(May 11) Derby (June 1) & Irish Derby

Sir Dragonet

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.8478 points.

Staggered acca number 10: (LEG 2)

6-00 CHELMSFORD – LAY on MARGUB – WON

Will shout soon as next leg emerges

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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