BOZmail – 10th MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service 

AT THE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL (DAY ONE) 

including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY MARCH 10th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 21.6706 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 9.7991 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 5.06 points

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LESS IS MORE: Tuesday play

4-25 SOUTHWELL

Moonlighter didn’t stay and Johnson sensed it and outrode Scuda so the yoyo backward and forward on LIM profit continues for March (importance of breaking even) and frustrations in NH on the ground we’ve been getting remain. No complaints therefore that we head back to all weather for day one of the Cheltenham festival. Only two races to choose from on Tuesday and this looks the one to play as a follow on from our effort on Sunday with two of the main protagonists back in the ring!

The two in it I don’t fancy are Badayel – who won a poor race here a month ago and is up in class and held on times and didn’t see it out well on handicap debut at Kempton Monday – and Split Down South who is very held by Highland Dress on Sunday’s form and will need to step up again to get involved.

That leaves three outsiders who can be fancied with Luke Morris on Glory of Paris in with a certain shout on back form and Gaye Kelleway’s two who both have it on paper and times with Robero the bigger value as I write. He ran a cracker here on Valentine’s day finishing second to Sandridge Lad for which he was raised 2lb and then ran up two grades NTO and comes back down here and if he can reproduce that February form under Toby Eley – who has won on him before – he could be that longpricer that happens whilst all eyes are on Chelters. George Rooke moves to Moveonup and they both have a chance of lowering the colours of Highland Dress who I would expect to start fav. Times and experience favour Kelleway’s pair.

The lay is Badayel if he turns out at around 3/1. Worth getting early. 

Recommendations:

0.15pt LAY on BADAYEL (around 4.0 and a bit higher if needs be)

0.1pt BACK on ROBERO

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 18/30 = 60%  Backs: 7/22 = 31.81%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for MARCH:

1st:    +0.196 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.2

2nd:   -0.04   (+0.156) Lay @ 1.4

3rd:    +0.047 (+0.203) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 7.4

4th:    +0.146 (+0.349) Lay @ 2.1 : Back @ 5.2

5th:    -0.435 (-0.086)  Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 34.0

6th:    +0.735 (+0.649) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 12.0

7th:     -0.34 (+0.309) Lays @ 4.9 & 1.66 : Backs @ 9.0 & 24.0

8th:     +0.22 (+0.529) Lay not matched : Back @ 3.2

9th:     -0.208 (+0.321) Lay @ 1.79 : Back @ 4.1

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Black Op – Entered for RSA & Marsh Novices (Mar 11&12)

Verdana Blue 

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Ballymore & Albert Bart(Mar 13)

Nordano* – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 11 & 13)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 10)

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 11 & 12 & 13)               

Welsh Saint* – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 12)

Normandy Soldier* 

Jatiluwih – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 12)

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10) 

Magic of Light* – Entered for Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco*Entered for the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ – Entered for the Champion Bumper (Mar 12)

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

Quick Wave 

It’safreebee – Entered for Fakenham (Mar 13)

Sporting John – Entered for the Ballymore at Cheltenham(Mar 11)

Captain Zebo

Ellens Way

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CHELTENHAM TO FOLLOWS/TRADES & ACCAS for DAY ONE:

2-10 – MAIRE BANRIGH – 0.15pt BACK @ 12/1

           ESPRIT DU LARGE – 0.1pt BACK @ 14/1

2-50 – VINNDICATION – 0.05pt BACK @ 6/1

Usual advice. Take the best price you can and hedge when offered preferential odds either before the off or in running.

The BOZ will also be placing the following multiple bets on DAY ONE using the occasional ACCA pot for staking:

2-10 REVERSED FORECAST: MAIRE BANRIGH & ESPRIT DU LARGE – 0.01pt unit stake – Total outlay = 0.02pts

PERMED WIN DOUBLE:

VINNDICATION & MAIRE BANRIGH – 0.01 pt

VINNDICATION & ESPRIT DU LARGE – 0.01pt

I do think Maire Banrigh is still my white hot hope but Esprit Du Large has been quietly and patiently laid out for the Arkle as well. It promises to be quite a tussle. They have Notebook to beat!

Vinndication is a fragile so and so but has also been patiently prepared for his race of the year. Here’s hoping we get off to a good start.

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WIN YANKEE FOR THE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 11/2 (Gold Cup,Friday)

Sporting John @ 3/1 (Ballymore,Wednesday)

Marie Banrigh @ 12/1 (Arkle,Tuesday)

Thyme Hill @ 4/1 (Albert Bartlett,Friday)

The Four Timer is still 1689/1 which is a bit less than our ante-post effort but no accounting for the British weather and it was a noble effort to try to get Verdana to post by praying for sunshine! These are still very much my four to holler home for the week with Richard Johnson on Thyme Hill the banker and we just have to hope Hobbs don’t scupper us also by attempting the Ballymore instead! Keep your eye on that. I think final declarations are Tuesday morning so you ought to be able to delay staking this until you’ve seen that Thyme Hill definitely goes for the long distance on Friday. There is Envoi Allen to beat in the Ballymore but my gut tells me Sporting John might just outmuscle him. Marie Banrigh and Lostintranslation remain the two speculatives in the Blue Riband events. They’ll either be good enough or they won’t.

I’ll settle for one of them succeeding but the hairs on the back of my neck are rising still when I think of the bet. As excited as I’ve been for many a year now. 

0.01pt WIN YANKEE : Total Stake = 0.11points 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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