BOZmail – 10th JUNE

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Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

MONDAY JUNE 10th  2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stood at 40.8925 points after month 5

Stands at 43.0503 points after month 6

LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

3-30 LEICESTER

You won’t be surprised to see me put Nietzsche on the summer to follow list after that. Just what the doctor ordered to get the belated June LIM effort off to the required start after the struggle we had throughout May and whilst my Lay % did take a battering, I’m very aware that the LIM back % is holding up well for the year and you can expect a few more backs this month as I seek to push on a bit now. Very good price on the good doctor too thanks to the money from the Greystoke stable. Their boy continues to impress and he also makes the list. Gave weight here and ran well to suggest he has improved as a chaser. I mistakenly read his Sedgefield win LTO as his chase debut and see now that he has mixed chasing and hurdling and does,as they told me, have the stamp of a chaser to be aware of for the future. This could turn out to be very good form. I told them at Greystoke that Nietzsche would beat him again however getting that kind of weight. I hope they hedged their bets!!

Monday’s play is less of a strong advice but being the only qualifying LIM on the day has meant I have been able to give it a good going over and I do think that despite the company he has been running in – most notably behind Sir Dragonet at Chester – Arthur Kitt does have enough negatives against him to be taking him on. Main rival Bombyx has all the positives including a jockey booking plus of approx 20% on my chart! Arthur Kitt stable scoring low on the in running chart but most significantly doesn’t look bred for or in love with the distance and with the weather forecasting heavy rain in Leicester on Monday, stamina test looks assured. Not Arthur Kitt’s day on my estimation whereas although there are chances for What about Carlo and Getchagetchagetcha, Bombyx does look to me to have a solid winning profile.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on ARTHUR KITT (around 2.9 : no greater than 3.4)

0.15pt BACK on BOMBYX (around 3.25)

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This month plays so far:

8th:      -0.1 (-0.1) Back @ 4.8

9th:   +1.691(+1.591) Lay @ 2.82 : Back @ 6.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 108/161 = 67.08% :   BACKS: 28/103 = 27.18%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

Commodore Barry

Nietzsche

Caius Marcius

TRADE FOR SUNDAY JUNE 9th:

4-25 PERTH – GET OUT THE GATE – 0.5pt BACK – (took 8.5 and hedged in running at 6.0)

Finished a well adrift fourth and it became obvious carrying top weight was meaning a struggle to stay with the pace. I managed my break even hedge by the skin of my teeth! Not a disappointing result overall and stayed on ok in the context of the task set for him and he will get easier tasks set now so worth continuing the follow. Not perhaps the superstar I was hoping for but early days yet and didn’t disgrace himself here by any means. Very competitive race.

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Moonlight Spirit

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Sir Dragonet- Entered for Irish Derby (June 29) & King Edward (June 21)

Raise You

Charl Brune

Barney Roy – Entered for Queen Anne(June 18) & Prince of Wales (June 19)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points.

Staggered acca number 11: (LEG 1)

Will shout when I’m ready to start another go at the acca

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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