BOZmail – 10th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

WEDNESDAY JULY 10th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stood at 40.8925 points after month 5

Stood at 43.0503 points after month 6

Stands at 48.248 points after month 7

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS POT TO PLAY WITH AT WIMBLEDON:

Current Total      = +8.8313 points

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Official Quarter Finals Tips:

0.25pt BACK on SHUAI ZHANG to beat SIMONA HALEP @ 9/2 – LOST

0.25pt BACK on KAROLINA MUCHOVA to beat ELINA SVITOLINA @ 33/16 – LOST

My outrights portfolio for Wimbledon 

My personal position is thus:

Serena Williams: 0.75pt LAY @ 7.8 : 0.2pt BACK @ 17.0 : 0.45pt @ 6.6 

= Current P/L :  +0.02

Rest of The Field: + 0.75 points – 0.6 points – 0.2 points -0.45 points 

= Current P/L:  -0.5

My thanks to Alison Riske who stuck in there and took the second set and then broke serve first game of the third and we were offered 6.6 on Serena which was below what I laid at but I jumped on it nevertheless. Sometimes you gotta accept defeat especially where Serena is concerned and she sure enough held firm to win through. Looked ragged for a few games in that third but she has such power to regenerate her mind that she found a way to win and is now a plus for me. I have a -0.5point on the rest of the field but with a couple of match bets left and either side of break even overall, I may be shutting my satchel now. Traded positively on the day’s two losing match bets as both players sported first set plusses so got my Wimbledon profit for 2019. It’s a miniscule profit for so much hard work but I accept that when taking Serena on. She looks like she’ll win it now so happy to have got out unscathed!! 

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LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

7-00 BATH

We knew our fate early on Tuesday with the fav rearing in the stalls and Packington failing to get to the lead. Well done if you managed to avoid the lay because of the drift. Sadly I didn’t and must bear the loss. Name of the game! Not been my finest past two days but damage limitation in force so live to press on Wednesday.

And I do quite like this race. Creek Island can be taken on by three in with a chance as he shoulders his penalty again after not coping with it well last time. Times don’t favour him and I would doubt whether the firm ground will be up his street either.

The one for me is Greeley who is on a mark, from a stable in good form,tried with cheekpieces first time which is often significant and is the one in the field who has shown he handles this track and distance and ran creditably here over further last time the ground came up firm.

Recommendations:

0.35pt LAY on CREEK ISLAND (around 2.7 or less : no greater than 3.0)

0.15pt BACK on GREELEY

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This month plays so far:

1st:  +1.005 (+1.005) Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 8.6

2nd: -0.636 (+0.369)  Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 4.5

3rd:  +0.145(+0.514)  Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

4th:   +0.145(+0.659) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @11.0

5th:    -0.4 (+0.259) Lay @ 3.0

6th:    +0.88 (+1.139) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.2

7th:   +0.643(+1.782) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 3.0

8th:   +0.932(+2.714) Lay @ 1.33 : Back @ 6.4

9th:   – 0.645(+2.069) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 7.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 123/184 = 66.84% :   BACKS: 35/123 = 28.45%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate 

Commodore Barry

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Goodwood Cup (July 30)

Sir Dragonet – Entered for the QIPCO (September 14)&Irish St Leger (Sep 15) 

Raise You

Charl Brune

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered in the Juddmonte (Aug 21)

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick

Light Up Our Stars 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.0 points.

Staggered acca number 14: (LEG 1)

Will shout when the next opportunity emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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