BOZmail 10th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

FRIDAY JULY 10th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 20.1747 points (+0.1747 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 13.9263 points (+5.9263 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.485 points (-0.515 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +5.117 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +9.4046 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 16/23 = 69.56%  Backs : 2/9 = 22.22%

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LESS IS MORE: 

3-50 MARKET RASEN

Plenty of Lockdown factor in this race so no going gung ho just yet. All runners coming back from lay off so plenty of variables. Fav also has the advantage of the big stable in form although after 6/8 on his lockdown comeback, Murphy has saddled nine losers since so not a stable that is just firing in any old shit. This horse does take some riding and although Johnson is also on board and knows the horse – so he does have strong stable and jockey boxes ticked – he looks a LIM on paper that is well worth taking on.Time just to see whether race read is back in synch.

All five other runners have an on paper squeak. Even Pride of Parish who is coming back after over two years off and could easily need this and a few more before he’s fit and ready. Classy sort of point to pointer in his time though with some decent rules efforts also under the belt and will be able to do the pace if he’s been squeezed. Gets weight off the top two as does Phoenix Rock who is a distinct danger receiving 8lbs  and also has stable and jockey boxes ticked. Robin Des People and Day of Roses are the ratings pair and could also both strike if primed on back form but I’ve mainly looked at the potential for Compadre to beat Mistercobar which has a clear chance on my magical time ratings both of which were clocked at this course.

In fact, Mistercobar has slowest time form in the field which doesn’t necessarily mean he’s slowest horse in the race but never bodes well for a short price fav. He will get a tactical ride from a champ who knows him but although officially rated level with Compadre, I’d say that’s the best it gets for him as a horse. Three miles not sure to suit whereas Compadre is a Yeats and rest of field all have better staying profiles.

Mistercobar’s best assets are trainer and jockey and the possibility as the younger horse that he is still improving. Needs to is what my race read says so that as fav, he is a definite LIM oppose.

It is a test race however. Lockdown factors still abound. We need evidence of the norm returned before we wade in. Stakes therefore modest to minimum.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on MISTERCOBAR (around 3.0. Take shortest and best price you can get)

0.075pt BACK on COMPADRE (around 5.5 or longer)

 LIM Scores in July:

1st:  +0.1054   (+0.1054) Lays @ 2.22 & 2.4 : Backs @ 3.1 & 2.56

2nd: -0.126      (-0.0206) Lay @ 1.48 : Backs @ 16.0 & 40.0

3rd:  +0.0232   (+0.0026) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 1.96

4th:   +0.1313  (+0.1339) Lay @ 2.76 : Back @ 4.0

5th:   -0.1         (+0.0339) Back @ 3.0

6th:   NO BET

7th:   +0.098   (+0.1319) Lay @ 2.5

8th & 9th: NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru – Entered for Deauville (July 12)

English King 

Ransom

Virgin Snow 

Collinsbay – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for Newbury(July 19)&York(Aug 20)&Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way 

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10) & Curragh(Sep13)

Sharp Reply – Entered for Salisbury(July 11)

Waseem Faris – Entered for Salisbury(July 11)

Little Chance

Samwell (FR)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Aleatoric

Check My Pulse

Ginstrelli 

Balagan 

Perle Rose

Ashutor

Sangha River

Captain Tom Cat

Beholden

TO FOLLOW/TRADE HORSE FOR THURSDAY:

4-20 YORK – MUKER @ 6/4  0.5pt BACK

Backed @ 2.56 : Hedged 0.61pt @2.12 : P/L = +0.0968points

Backed again @ 2.37 : Hedged in running at 1.12 : overall  P/L = +0.7073points 

I forgot to flag up last night that Tactical and Yamazan were running the 3-00 at Newmarket (mainly because I didn’t spot it until this morning!) and thus gave us a blinding form boost for Muker when they finished 1-2 again. I trust those of you following your racing spotted it. I had greened out but I went in again for the in running hedge on the back of that and our boy – who looked fabulous in the paddock again – did not disappoint. Already horse of the BOZmail year and winning with that penalty means he may not have stopped yet. Entered back at York again for a big one next month and proved he handled softer ground here as well. Very exciting.  

TO FOLLOW/TRADE HORSE FOR FRIDAY:

6-05 BATH – WASEEM FARIS @ 20/1 – 0.2pt BACK

Take the best price you can get and hedge as appropriate when preferential odds are offered.

Based on what we saw LTO, I wouldn’t perhaps be expecting Waseem to win just yet. He’s an old boy now and he’ll take some time to wind up. Like an old grandfather clock. It was an encouraging run however, staying on and making up ground at the business end. And his trainer is one of those who can spring the surprise at any moment. Especially here at Bath. Evening meeting with the sun out. Ideal. So look for any signs that Waseem is bouncing. Paddock watch if you can get it and look for the dump or signs of friskiness. Keep keen eye on the market also. Hedge in segments perhaps if the price is descending and you’ve got on ridiculously high. Keep as much in for the possible win as you can whilst greening out. And if you see any of those signs that he’s primed, back him again!

Good Luck. Enjoy. This is the BOZmail getting back to work!

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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