BOZmail – 10th JANUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

THURSDAY JANUARY 10th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 25.5 points after month 1

 

LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

3-50 CATTERICK

The jungle drums are banging again around Cartmel as The Steward tries once more to bag his win over hurdles. You have to admire his pluck and he ran his career best hurdles effort (after doing ok in a Group 3 on the flat for Dermot Weld) LTO over course and distance and beat several better fancied horses in coming second yet again at the rewarding each way price of 12/1. They were on round here that day and the old boy got nothing but praise going to the last in the lead and just not being able to quicken again when the well touted fav came to threaten him. One paced. To win, you’d have to say he’ll need to try what Indian Opera did for us earlier in the week and just blitz 20 lengths out front and try to stay. Henry Brooke is a man for that job and like I say, they are jumping up and down round here saying the horse is bouncing. They believe. I had him each way last twice and the same again today but this is not really an each way race. First time out in a handicap? Could that make the difference? Sometimes does but on paper here, no chance. Being consistently penalised by the handicapper for running well and not winning so not put in at a good mark for his handicap debut. Other than belief however it is my shot at seeing him as the winner. Do I believe? In his trainer, yes. Do I want him to win? Sadly that’s a massive yes. A sentiment to make one keep one’s hands in one’s pockets. Sometimes however it ain’t about dosh!

I had the other race at Catterick lined up for LIM where Skidoosh has a good chance of dethroning the McCain horse but the negative for Skidoosh is the state of the Ben Pauling yard form. Horses been running well below form past fortnight so my confidence in that at the price is reduced. No cover either with the 3rd horse looking held by the fav. And the price of Jimmy Rabbitte did bring me back to this race. 4/9 is mighty short and at that he is a lay. Were I not looking for my 18th consecutive lay winner, I’d have no doubt. Gets weight off The Steward. Is not penalised for his win in a claiming jockeys race LTO and STD makes his way up specially for the ride. Hence the price with little else in the race to seemingly threaten him.

Except there is the interesting jockey booking for race outsider Snowed In. Course and distance specialist who arguably would want some cut in the ground but that jockey booking does look very interesting.Horse not rated that far below Jimmy Rabbitte and getting nearly a stone in weight. Not beyond the bounds of possibility. Stable and horse recent form not great although run at Kelso three runs back was ok and just down really to whether horse is ready to come back to previous form that does entitle a win at this mark. No way of knowing. That jockey booking just a possible clue.

Midnight Walk has form you could be hopeful of both as a novice hurdler and as a chaser. So there is cover for the lay on Jimmy Rabbitte but there is also the opportunity to play the LIM creatively and differently without risking the lay record which does appeal. Call me a coward if you like but here I go with a creative LIM first!

Prices are as advertised on current tissue. The Boz won’t be playing on the exchanges for one day only!!

Recommendation:

0.1pt BACK on MIDNIGHT WALK to win @14/1

0.1pt BACK on SNOWED IN to win @ 20/1

0.1pt BACK on THE STEWARD to win @ 13/2

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 32/37 = 86.48% :   BACKS: 5/21 = 23.8%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

 

Stands at 15.00 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Willoughby Court *

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Kempton (Jan 12) & Ascot (Jan 19)

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars  

Itchy Feet *

Frodon *

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons *

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  

Benatar *

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light  

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication *

Rockys Treasure – Entered at Warwick (Jan 12)

Valtor

Ruby Yeats

Lostintranslation*

Cliffs of Dover*

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.75 points.

 

Staggered acca number 4: (LEG 1)

1-00 DONCASTER – TALKISCHEAP – 0.5pt WIN – WON @ 1/2

 

So that does the job and gets us up and running again with the 0.5pt put back in the bank and an official 0.25pt stake for the second leg of the acca as and when. You may have done better than 1/2 (I managed some 4/6 on the exchange) so keep your own score and use whatever winnings you made, added back to bank for now, but ready for action on second leg as it occurs. The official sheet bet was settled at 1/2.

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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