BOZmail – 10th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY FEBRUARY 10th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 20.148 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 8.1029 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.99 points

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LESS IS MORE: Monday play

6-10 WOLVERHAMPTON

Catterick already abandoned on Monday and Plumpton has to survive an 8am inspection with the ground already heavy and I dunno about where you are but Storm Ciara did its worst where I live and both duck pond and pub car park are flooded with the sea defences only just holding. The only LIM qualifier at Plumpton looked trappy anyways with Moabit back after a 449 day lay off for its chase debut and Breaking waves the one my race read suggested we should lay but it’s the outsider which makes that a no play race anyways.

Already moaning at the loss of Exeter which I saw as a way of arresting the two day reversal we’ve had, I was girding myself up for a no play day again and a lecture on the importance of BOZmail rule number 5 instead – the importance of breaking even especially when a downturn is upon us – but I have found a play at Wolverhampton and quite a good one so you are spared the lecture! And we get to watch a race instead so long as Storm Ciara abates and Wolverhampton isn’t bending under the winds.

Without  the reversals on Friday and Saturday, I might be going gung ho on laying Clap Your Hands who has an 11lb rise to overcome and is held on times by three of his opponents. Unless he should find massive improvement on the step up to two miles which doesn’t look at all certain on breeding.

Looks to have reached his handicap ceiling for now to my eyes. Very short at 5/4 and we might get lower than that on my market read so far.

Island Brave looks sure to finish in front if he gets the distance although that is an if whereas Dance to Paris is already proven at the distance and off a challenging mark but also well fancied. Value for me and the back if I were having one would be Charlie D who is also proven at distance, receives weight, holds a better time figure and hails from a stable currently running at 100% performing to form which is a stat I hold in high esteem.

Reason I’m not backing though is that this is all weather and not NH so I respect my slightly lesser back knowledge in this sphere. Good at all weather but not great which I proved at Southwell in that acca last week not getting the 2/5 sprinter beat! So was ready to risk taking the bank into red – an outcome of importance to me to avoid during January and February these days – with the NH play at Exeter but desiring more caution with a play on the all weather. We’ll see whether or not that caution is misplaced but if it is, we’ll still have done some important repair work on the reversals from end of last week. The lecture was going to quote what repeats on the feedback sheets I do with BOZmailers from over the years who always say the thing they learned most from following LIM was not the ability to pick winners but the importance of and ability to handle losers. I feel the same. LIM revolutionised me as a gambler in the same respect. 

After losers, build back up slow. For same reason, should Plumpton survive tomorrow, I also will not be trading to follow horse Wenceslaus who is entered to run in the 3-45. Star horse of the BOZmail in 2019 with his three wins from four and a big boost to our hopes for Maire Banrigh at Cheltenham. 11/8 for the race tomorrow which is very prohibitive for backing and trading alike. On balance I think there are at least two in the field to beat him at the weights on Monday but if it does run I shall take great pleasure in shouting for him anyway. Member of the BOZmail family as he now is!  

We’ll stick to laying Clap Your Hands which I consider a pretty silly name for a horse!

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on CLAP YOUR HANDS (around 2.25 or shorter if available: upper value parameter 3.0)

 LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 4/5 = 80%  Backs: 0/2 = 0%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for FEBRUARY:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.3

2nd: +0.147 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.28

3rd: +0.196 (+0.539) Lay @ 2.9

4th:  NO BET DAY

5th: NO BET DAY

6th: +0.097 (+0.636) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 15.0

7th: -0.288 (+0.348) Lay @ 1.96

8th:   -0.2 (+0.148) Back @ 2.56

9th: RACING ABANDONED

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Black Op – Entered for RSA & Marsh Novices (Mar 11&12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle & Mares Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Wenceslaus* – Entered for Plumpton (Feb 10)

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Ballymore & Albert Bart(Mar 13)

Nordano – 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication 

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Ballymore (Mar 11) & Albert Bartlett (Mar 13)

Welsh Saint* 

Normandy Soldier* –

Jatiluwih 

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Magic of Light* – Entered for Chelt (Mar 10) & Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco – Entered for the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

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ANTE POST ACCA FOR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 8/1

Verdana Blue @ 33/1

Marie Banrigh @ 25/1

Thyme Hill @ 6/1

0.01pt WIN ACCA with acca edge accepted. 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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