BOZmail – 10th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the two week trial of the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

MONDAY DECEMBER 10th 2018

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

 

LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

2-30 LINGFIELD

Can’t say it went exactly how I expected Sunday but the inexperienced jumping sealed it and the De Bromhead pair did get first and second meaning I should really have backed both LIM weekend winners but that is just hindsight talking and my cautious nature means I have instead just steadied ship after a turbulent Saturday with the football. Still haven’t got to the bottom of what happened to Redditch. Will report when I do.

Those new to watching me will find I never go gung ho after a losing day as experience has taught me that is the quickest way to the poor house and they don’t call me the tortoise for nothing.I play to repair instead. Plod along steadily accumulating profit. Doing what I’m best at. I do have a go at longshots as you saw with the Becher but when I land one, I like it to be all profit and not paying back for losses on the last twelve failed ones! So they aren’t that common. My SR with them is ok over a year as you’ll see if you stick around. Patience will be required. Those in a hurry best join the hare!  Of course you do get longshots on LIM too when appropriate and there is the sight of stake paid for by laying dodgy fav!

Pleased I got the choice from two right yesterday as Min upheld the form over Shattered Love who did give the impression he could be getting closer though and might be a force come March. Keep him on your watch list.

Wrestled hard with two for Monday aswell as McCain’s Thyne for Gold is a very short price in the last at Musselburgh and has to concede a double penalty which always asks a lot. The opposition against him though are a seriously motley crew and in search of my 9/10 on this service,about which I am deadly earnest, I have instead plumped for taking on Ballyhaigue Bay at a longer price for smaller stake in view of more confidence in getting him beaten. The Tizzard presence suggests a serious go at this race and Sizing Brisbane is a dark horse with Scudamore booked. Just has that look of an upset about it getting a sizable weight concession. No form to confirm it though so not a back. Just one to have on side. Bally Longford does look the first string and likely race winner although on ratings Jennys Surprise is at close quarters and does represent the race value I’d say.

But I’m in to get one beat and that’s Ballyhaigue Bay whose stable are on the cold list and he is not favoured by ground or distance. Does handle heavy but doesn’t win on it and Lingfield is famous for getting bottomless and although has done ok when dropped back in distance, isn’t starred by it on back form. Breeding surprisingly doesn’t point to staying trips either. Is a versatile and solid sort but of the four here is simply the one I fancy least and has three strong negatives to suggest that even at 11/4 or thereabouts, he’s the one to take on. I stake small in view of price but have plumped for him with the confidence he’ll get me my 9 out of ten.

 

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on BALLYHAIGUE BAY

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 8/9 = 88.88%

                                                          BACKS: 1/6 = 16.66%

 

**************************************************************************************************

 

STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

(remember that stake of successful first leg bet is always returned directly to bank and that stake for leg two is simply the winnings from leg one.)

 

Next attempt at staggered acca will start as soon as appropriate selection emerges. Despite the fall at the second leg on attempt one, starting bank remains intact.

 

Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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