BOZmail 10th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

THURSDAY DECEMBER 10th  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 119/169 = 70.41%  Backs : 34/106 = 32.07%

2-55 NEWCASTLE

Well, a touch of Murphys Law that I’m came into the race on a loser (thus abandoning my big bet) and double whammy with Charm Offensive not advertising the form but sod all that! Lady Bowes is the real deal! And I love her to bits. Especially – as Charlotte said after – the way she does what she likes! She sure does and nearly ran out again first circuit as she saw the stables in the corner of her eye. 

Did that at Perth too when she won. Traded at 55.0 at that point. Well done if you snaffled that! Jumped her own way at the last too. But Jimmy knew what was what regarding ground and distance. Got both of those right. The Grand National it is – long term target wise. I’m sure of it now! 2024. Maybe earlier!! Keep your eye on ante-post odds in the years to come! I expect a run at Aintree in a good race as her next target. Get her used to the venue. We’ll see.

Good piece of placing by Jimmy I thought and market did the usual thing in races he takes part in. Smashed into something else and let his drift out. Still the best stable in the world to follow for that purpose.

And I live to rue my stake but a winner’s a winner and the long term prospect is fabulous. Lady Bowes and Iga Swiatek. Stick with them both and Charlotte Jones is a bit of all right too!

It’s not a huge play on Thursday and I go bank management again but I am keen enough to oppose the fav Empire de Maulde who looks a horse not sure to like the ground. Couple of second favs to cover the LIM punt on the outsider Shaughnessy who has changed stables and had a wind op and runs for the canny Alison Hamilton who is another small trainer I admire. The booking of Brian Hughes looks telling to me. It will get its ride! Should also appreciate the ground. Gets a stone off the fav and appears on the shortlist selections which has also caught my eye.

Recommendation:

0.1pt LAY on EMPIRE DE MAULDE (around 2.7)

0.05pt BACK on SHAUGHNESSY (around 13.0) 

*****************************************************

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Parramount

Tamar Bridge

Wild Polly 

Straw Fan Jack 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Young Wolf 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo – Entered for Carlisle (Dec 13)

Defi Sacre – Entered for Doncaster (Dec 12)

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive – Entered for Ayr (Dec 14)

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Prettylittlething – Entered for Hereford (Dec 12)

Boothill – Entered for Taunton (Dec 10)

Al Dancer – Entered for Cheltenham(Dec 12)&KingGeorge(Dec 26)

For Pleasure 

Shan Blue – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Shang Tang

Snow Leopardess 

Marble Sands

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy) 

Ga Law – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16,17 & 18)

First Flow – Entered for Cheltenham (Dec 12)

Get Your Own

Thyme Hill – Entered for Ascot (Dec 19) & Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Floressa – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16)

Cheddleton

********************

NH TO FOLLOW/TRADE HORSE for WEDNESDAY:

1-25 HEXHAM – CHARM OFFENSIVE @ 6/1 – 0.15pt BACK

Backed @ 9.4 : hedged 0.075pt @ 4.2 & 0.075pt @ 5.2 in running : P/L = 0

Disappointing. Market suggested he was gonna get involved in the finish (or was that us?) but I wasn’t convinced as we approached two out and I cashed out to the free bet. Still with a bit to play with if I was proved wrong and he ran on in like in that Ayr bumper. But no sign of that again. Just stayed on plodding. Actually think might need firm ground or if not, then step up in distance. Might go off the list for now as could just be needs more experience jumping. Lost ground at hurdles again today. Entered for Ayr on Monday however so I’ll see if he keeps that appointment and if not, scratch from list for now. Not good news for the Lady Bowes formline that I was looking for!

NH TO FOLLOW/TRADE HORSE for THURSDAY:

1-10 TAUNTON – BOOTHILL @ 5/2 – 0.25pt BACK

Get the best price that you can and hedge as appropriate and/or when preferential

Odds appear.

Has to jump to win. FTO over jumps hence the price but a talking horse and the BOZ’s inside stable horse so a rock solid trade. Be bold and hedge at preferential leaving a bit for the 1.1 and 1.01 is the advice again.

*******************

LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

November : +4.468 points (+12.3708 points)

****************************************************

LIM Scores for December:

1st:   +0.098   (+0.098) Lay @ 3.2

2nd:  +0.098 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.04 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   NO BET

4th:    -0.16    (+0.036) Lay @ 1.8

5th:    -0.308  (-0.272) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 8.0

6th:    +0.147 (-0.125) Lay @ 2.66

7th:    +0.147 (+0.022) Lay @ 2.24 : Back @ 8.0

8th:    -0.374   (-0.352) Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 9.0

9th:   +0.7056 (+0.3536) Back @ 7.0

*****************************************************

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +52.6073points

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 32.7244 points (+12.7244 points)

*************************************************

TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 49.8234 points (+41.8234 points)

*************************************************

OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.2085 points (-0.7915 points)

*************************************************

SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

******************************************

Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

*************************************************

Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

*************************************************

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *