BOZmail – 10th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SATURDAY AUGUST 10th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 55.451 points after month 8 (+35.451 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.3313 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +4.7952 points

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LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

3-05 HAYDOCK

Well, I go from reining in to having a right go today as a horse I’ve been waiting for from the to follow list for ages has a go at the Rose of Lancaster stakes at Haydock.

The Boz is also going down for the paddock watch if you want texting with the gen (not that any of these are going to be unfit!!) and I have to confess I never clocked his entry until the weekly Friday scan.

The confidence is up after getting yesterday right and also because my good friend and colleague Nick Hardman has provided a comprehensive trends analysis for the race which falls in line with my own figures and thinking. Namely that the favourite Addeybb has to give weight to all but the AW speedster Wissahickon courtesy of being a 5 year old in a race that is typically more suited to the 3 or 4 year olds. 18 of the last 21 winners from that bracket.

Of the nine winners trends Nick listed in his published analysis on Friday, Addeybb meets only four whereas our boy Raise You meets eight of the nine and the only one he misses on is where he ran LTO. Winners tend to come from runs LTO at Newbury,

Sandown or Ascot whereas our boy ran in a very hot race at Chantilly in France (the Derby no less) and I’m here to tell you that that race was run in a super quick time and this represents a big drop in class for Raise You whose two wins in this country have both worked out well in the franking form stakes. Our win on Ocean Paradise came from that source.

I don’t tend to put huge store on trends approach to picking winners partly because of BOZmail rule number one where I tend to prefer races that no-one else is paying much attention to and thus they are races that tend not to have discernible trends anyways!! Also because I like to defy trends if possible being the awkward bugger that I am! Prices are often better when you do. I never ignore trends analysis however and when my to follow horses are running in races where trends analysis is very pertinent, as here, I often run the rule and read what colleagues have come up with to help decide on my stake in conjunction with my own methods of course.

So I’m big on Addeybb getting beat because he scores badly on trends and on my own time figures. His saving grace is soft ground however and there has been a fair bit of rain in the North West today so I may be tempering stakes on him a bit tomorrow if it comes up soft. That won’t change my enthusiasm for Raise You however who should be ok on soft or good to soft. If it goes Haydock heavy, I may temper stakes somewhat as Haydock can get really heavy. Then form is of little consequence.

Form here is on our side with Pondus identified as the danger for the forecast but what is really getting me excited about the chance of Raise You is that Oisin Murphy chooses to ride him. He could have picked Pondus but he hasn’t. Raise You is one of his big ten for the season. 

I expect the prices to get smashed especially after Nick Hardman publishes on Saturday morning when I presume he will also be against Addeybb. I’m publishing early so that you can get your price. Get on!

Recommendation:

0.5pt LAY on ADDEYBB (around 2.2 : no greater than 2.6)

0.3pt BACK on RAISE YOU (around 7.0 or better if you can get it)

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This month plays so far:

1st:       +1.244(+1.244) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.8

2nd:      -0.5465(+0.6975) Lay @ 1.99 : Back @ 3.3

3rd:       -0.024 (+0.6735) Lays @2.08 & 2.08 : Back @ 11.5

4th:       +0.045(+0.7185) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 11.0

5th:       +0.196(+0.9145) Lay @ 2.08

6th:        -0.48 (+0.4345) Lay @ 3.4

7th:        +0.39 (+0.8245) Lay @ 1.69 : Back @ 11.0

8th:        -0.4425(+0.382)  Lay @ 1.55 : Backs @ 6.4 & 4.1

9th:        +0.245 (+0.627) Lay @ 2.2

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 142/211 = 67.29% :   BACKS: 42/144 = 29.16%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Qipco Cup at Ascot (Oct 19)

Sir Dragonet – Entered for Curragh (Aug 16) & York(Aug 21) 

Raise You – Entered for the Rose of Lancaster (Aug 10)

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman 

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick 

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in the Hungerford,Newbury (Aug 17) &  Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7)

Miss Celestial 

Deirdre – Entered for the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (Sep 14)

Piedita

James Watt

Lord of the Lodge – Entered in the Gimcrack at York (Aug 23)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.72 points.

Staggered acca number 16: (LEG 1)

0.5pt REDDITCH UNITED to beat BANBURY in Southern Premier Central @ 20/21

Start of the non league football season also on a big Saturday for The BOZmail.

I’m with my boys from Redditch who brought up my last staggered acca in November 2018 and have amassed a late strengthening to their squad including Callum Coyne from Solihull. I ran the rule over the summer friendlies and saw them beat Bedworth 9-3 and had them watched as they dumped Mansfield 4-1. The price isn’t as I’d hoped as they were inferior to Banbury last season (although won 3-1 in the away fixture) but are a home side (on their all weather pitch which gives them an advantage) and the word must have got out on the new signings so this might be our only value price of the season if they win as I expect them to. Don’t worry, I’m also working hard on the tennis at the moment and am determined to land a decent acca at some stage this month with the US Open on the horizon.

Only caveat to this bet is that Banbury do better away from home than at home and drew 2-2 here last year. The draw price is value. There is also the fact that Redditch’s new signings may take time to gel. So not a whopper starter stake and some minus to recover anyways. But I’m as confident on this as I am about the LIM.

Fingers crossed for a good day! 

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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