BOZmail 10th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY AUGUST 10th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 20.9966 points (+0.9966 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 14.4653 points (+6.4653 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.705 points (-0.295 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.53 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +6.1679 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +10.4555 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 38/49 = 77.55%  Backs : 5/22 = 22.72%

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LESS IS MORE:

2-15 SOUTHWELL

You want the good news or the bad? Actually,it is getting to the point where I can’t tell the difference between the two! Despite all attempts to keep the chin up and the smile fixed, good news does seem reasonably hard to come by right now. Captain Tom Cat won but I didn’t back him so not sure if that is good or bad. You decide!

The seriously depressing news for me is that my sweep of the week ahead has revealed a far less than inspiring card at Southwell to go at. I was tempted to have a go at Sussex Road at 50/1 in a three runner novice chase where the other two are even money or shorter and are tough to split. But old Sussex has never won a race in his life nor ever even come near. I have a soft spot for him but have never backed him nor ever thought I would even consider it. That’s how bad British Racing has got and the true extent of the mess the country is in does now start to reveal itself. Sussex Road is not even a racehorse really. He’s a plug. Goes round at one pace usually ten gallops short of the pace required to win. So, desperate though I may feel, I can’t back him. Which does of course mean. Well, you know what it means….

Leaves me with just the seven runner handicap chase which I’ll come back to. A race I would in a normal year swerve but may have a go at as I do at least have an opinion based on my race read. Then we have Lady Bowes entered for the bumper at Perth Tuesday night (that’s the good news!) and then no more National Hunt racing for the rest of the week. Such are the ramifications that one of the newly acquired to follow horses over jumps is entered on the flat on Friday. We have a flat entry as well. But it’s going to be a quiet week whatever. I still don’t much trust the flat.

That might not depress all of you as I’ve spoken to several and received kindnesses and updates from a lot of you but was a tad depressed myself to hear that the majority of you have done what I didn’t or couldn’t bring myself to do and shut up shop when Covid hit in March. You foresaw how shit it would be for the foreseeable and you have been proved right.

The big bugger is the news that Malotru – one of the few shining lights for me this year – has been deemed too good to stay in England to race for abysmal prize money and thus been sold to rich international owners who have shipped him over for a career in Hong Kong. Poor old Marco must wave goodbye. We can still follow him of course but I don’t generally attempt much at Sha Tin where every race runs as a Grand National with more runners than you can shake a stick at. I wish Malotru well in his new life and he won us a few bob so no regrets. But a bit of a pisser to learn that this country has nothing to offer him right now. No surprise really. Just depressing.

It could just be a quiet week of course and they do happen. There is more promising stuff ahead and it hasn’t all been doom and gloom past few weeks. Just hardly razzamatazz either!

Which brings me back to the 2-15 at Southwell on Monday for those of you like me still looking for something to fill your day! Had my fingers burnt by a Skelton hotpot improver on Saturday so have not decided to take another one on lightly. But Azzuri was undoubtedly meant to win on his seasonal debut 40 days ago and couldn’t manage it. They backed him like he was untouchable but a rag of Michael Scudamore’s beat him and lines up again on similar terms. The stable however have done nothing since so whilst Isaac Wonder will be value, I have no confidence he’ll win again.Nor that Tidal Watch – also in the race finishing fourth and with form and ratings to recommend him – can be relied on to reverse what was disappointing form LTO. Croco Bay ran well LTO and also has form and ratings on his side but is 13 years old again. He’s the main reason I am in because he does at least offer cover if no great incentive to back. Addrastos and Theflyingportrait can both win on the book but the former was pulled up FTO from a stable still stuttering to find form whilst the latter runs for the first time in 275 days. Thus could be up there or out with the washing. I’d want a serious paddock watch on him. Which leaves the bottom weight Solar Impulse who doesn’t win often but ran a decent opener in third behind a couple of good ones at Uttoxeter and in 2016 won the Grand Annual at Cheltenham – a group race no less. So attractively rated now and receiving over a stone off Azzuri about whom you have to have doubts at the price as he is worst in on ratings and times and that second behind Isaac Wonder might prove poor fare (for coming in second of which he is raised 5lb in the ratings!). Better to me looks Solar Impulse’s second behind Addrastos at Kemptom in 2019 which makes Addrastos the value in the race. Current form however favours Solar Impulse so I just lean to him.

But it’s not a mortgage race by a mile and a million more and no complaints from me if you decided to sit it out or trade it or do whatever it is you prefer. I was heartened to hear that the majority are doing well in that category of bolting the BOZmail on to your own preferences and practices and approaching with disciplined caution. That is always the best way and never more so than this year. 

Recommendation:

0.1pt LAY on AZZURI (under and around 3.5)

0.05pt BACK on SOLAR IMPULSE (as high as 9.0 on early tissue which is value. Take the best you can)

LIM scores for August:

1st :  NO BET

2nd : +0.0886  (+0.0886) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   +0.0245  (+0.1131) Lay @ 3.75

4th:   +0.385    (+0.4981) Lays @ 3.75 & 3.3 :Backs @ 15.0 & 3.75

5th:   +0.0671 (+0.5652) Lay @ 2.38 & 14.0 : Backs @ 19.0 & 4.0

6th:    NON RUNNER

7th:    +0.049  (+0.6142) Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 7.0

8th:    -0.475 (+0.1392) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.4

9th:    NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Ransom

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way 

Battleground – Entered for  Curragh (Aug 22&Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar – Entered at Chepstow(Aug 14)

Custard The Dragon

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Lord Condi 

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo 

Pisgah Pike

El Presente

Hiconic

Young Wolf

Sirobbie

Little Jessture

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes – Entered at Perth (Aug 11)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Global Tour

Samsons Reach

Leoncavallo – Entered at Haydock (Aug 11) & Pontefract (Aug 14)

Longhouse Sale

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  (+2.7744points)

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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