BOZmail 27th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 27th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stands at 25.83 points after month 2

LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

5-00 WINCANTON

Correct call Tuesday to stop the rot and you see why I don’t like backing chasing debutantes. Would have won if he’d jumped but Boagrius’ attitude just held firm for us. And I stay in that same robust frame of mind to see February out on a positive without risking reverting back to negative accounts.

This is probably a two horse hunter chase (although fences always have to be jumped) and I stick to opposing the marginal tissue fav Risk a Fine despite the favour he did us at Fakenham a few days back on the famous defecate in running day.

He gets four pounds off Monsieur Gibraltar aswell and it was an impressive front running effort LTO so that he is not taken on lightly. But nor will he be taken on hefty in view of the desire for strategic bank management. He could win.

Two things sway me to Monsieur Gibraltar. Both come from top hunter chase connections – stable and jockey wise – but Monsieur Gibraltar has literally just changed ownership this week and looks a serious acquisition for the Maxwell operation. Was considered good enough for Listed class entries under Rules and was an ownership project of Paul Nicholls. Most crucially for me he has the sway of the clock on my figures and by some margin. Been out in the point to point field of late but been cleaning up and this being an under three mile event I think plays to his speed strength. The four pounds could make it a close finish in which I might have preferred King to Maxwell in years gone by. David has however sharpened himself in recent times and looks fitter and leaner and slightly less ‘agricultural’ than of old. Takes the game extremely seriously and puts his money where his mouth is and gets my vote in this.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on  RISK A FINE (around 2.0)

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 53/75 = 70.66% :   BACKS: 11/49 = 22.44%

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 13.9375 points

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Ryanair Chase (Mar 14)

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Itchy Feet * – Entered for Supreme Novices (Mar 12)

Frodon * – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14) & Gold Cup (Mar 15)

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons * – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12) & Queen Mother (Mar 13)

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Benatar

Captain Zebo

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication * – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Valtor – Entered for Albert Bartlett (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Lostintranslation* – Entered in JLT (Mar 14)

Cliffs of Dover

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12)

Happy Diva

Elegant Escape – Entered for Gold Cup (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Kaiser Black

Parlour Maid

All Currencies

Knocknanuss* – Entered in the Arkle (Mar 12)

The Mighty Ash

Pistol Whipped

Cyrname

Rainy Day Dylan

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.685 points.

Staggered acca number 6: (LEG 1)

3-15 LINGFIELD – WISSAHICKON – at around 1/3  – 0.5pt WIN – WON

Will shout as soon as second leg emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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