BOZmail 1st SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet & 

THE BOZmail at the Socially distanced US Open!

TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 1st  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +13.5117 points

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 24.747 points (+4.747 points)

*************************************************

TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 18.3587 points (+10.3587 points)

*************************************************

OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.555 points (-0.445 points)

*************************************************

SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

******************************************

Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

*************************************************

Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

*************************************************

LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 74/104 = 71.15%  Backs : 18/61 = 29.5%

6-30 NEWTON ABBOT

First day of September when I would traditionally be suspending LIM for a month based on historical poorish scores. Don’t really see that applying this year as we are so far out now of the normal fixtures and seasonal rhythm but I tread warily for the first few days just in case. Let’s see how the results go. There is also tennis to focus on should the horse racing need shutting down!

This race looks playable on paper. Three can be fancied with a winning chance to topple the Skelton fav who is raised in class and has penalty to carry for narrow LTO win. Constancio is interesting travelling all the way down from Cheshire and Teqany also has clear form chance in the class.Both have good times comparison with the fav. Were I to risk a back, that would go on the value outsider Magical Thomas who is shortlist highlighted and gets weight from all with Scudamore in the plate. But a very open race and I’ll content with the small lay on the fav as a tester to see how the month might pan out.

(If you are down to trade in play on the tennis Monday night, you might already know that two of the trade matches are scheduled for today. 8-30 for Brengle and 11-15pm uk time for Blinkova v Brady. I had expected live coverage on my Eurosport channel but that looks to be not happening on the main channels. Only on a subscription subsidiary and Amazon Prime has the main UK coverage. Betfair Live usually covers however if you are betting on the match and there is online streaming via ESPN.)

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on FERROBIN (around 3.8)

******************************************************************        

BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Leopardstown (Sep 12) &  Curragh (Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar – Entered at Salisbury (Sep 3)

Custard The Dragon 

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan – Entered at Uttoxeter (Sep 2)

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Lord Condi – Entered at Sedgefield (Sep 4)

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo 

Pisgah Pike – Entered at Hexham (Sep 2) & Southwell (Sep 3)

Hiconic

Young Wolf

Sirobbie 

Little Jessture 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Global Tour 

Samsons Reach 

Leoncavallo

Longhouse Sale

Oscar Rose – Entered at Uttoxeter (Sep 2)

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

NH TO FOLLOW HORSE on the flat at Southwell Monday:

1-40 Samsons Reach @ 5/1 – 0.2pt BACK

Backed @ 15.5 : Hedged in running early 0.25pt @ 10.0 : P/L = +0.049points

Don’t ask me what that race was all about. I don’t have a scoobies other than that there is some extremely dodgy, bordering on farcical, stuff going down right now.

That is a horse who had every chance of an NH win NTO (and stays on the list as I believe that is still where he belongs) and has wasted his immediate winning chance behind another NH player who they obviously knew was going to win the race by twenty miles! Never seen such a field of strung out washing on the flat! 

You could argue they were just seeing if Samson – who has no flat form really and uses races under former trainer thereon just to get fit – took to the idiosyncratic Southwell surface. Well he obviously didn’t. Hated the whole thing and has maybe been done some serious mental damage. We shall see. Owners/trainers just blindly chasing better prize money?? Can’t see that really. Hope the suspicion is wrong.

Anyway. We could back a 5/1 shot at monstrous price and hedge with ease. So I suppose I shouldn’t be complaining. The sport, however, seems to me to be currently in disarray.

**********************************************************************************

LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

*********************************************************************************

US OPEN preview DAY ONE:

plus winner portfolio and first round bets:

Not much to add to what I said yesterday except that you’ll have noted that Naomi Osaka withdrew from the Western Open final with a hamstring. She will therefore trigger my portfolio early I suspect as the lay although I’ve decided to watch her against Misaki Doi first. She’ll get the runaround from her compatriot if she shows up on court. We’ll see how real the injury is.

VALUE FIRST ROUND PICKS to start as 0.15pt BACKS for in play trading & hedging:

Yanina Wickmayer (8.6) to beat Sofia Kenin 

Stefani Voegele (5.7) to beat Maria Sakkari

Anna Blinkova (4.8) to beat Jennifer Brady

Madison Brengle (2.1) to beat Lesia Tsurenko

Kurumi Nara (2.1) to beat Patricia Maria Tig

So completes my first round list of potential upsets against the book. First line recommended way to play them is as in running trades and those I am able to play that way myself will be settled on here as such. It is also possible however for those who don’t have the time to do the trading to consider level stakes win singles on the above with a reasonable chance of overall profit. Two or three successful final result predictions will secure a level stakes profit and my bank management recommendation for that approach would be a level stake 0.05pt as acceptable risk. If you are that kind of player of course you could also plan small stake multiple perms from the above. They are chosen more for giving chance at a greening trade but the final result upset is also a possible in each case based on past form and head to head study so I don’t rule any of them out as possible upset wins. And the five timer would make a nice acca! I leave you to determine stakes for that approach. No official first round acca recommendations from the value picks.

 I reserve that for my list of first round bankers which is as follows:

Camila Giorgi (1.5) to beat Alison Van Uytvanck

 Alize Cornet (1.33) to beat Lauren Davis

Alison Riske (1.17) to beat Tatjana Maria 

Petra Kvitova (1.18) to beat Irina Begu

I stake that as a 0.25pt four timer.

My total bank management spend on first round fixtures is thus 0.5pt if you are backing at fixed odds and 1pt if you are playing as a trader.

Good Luck with your bets and enjoy watching some tennis!

BOZ

***************************************************************************

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz