BOZmail 1st JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

WEDNESDAY JULY 1st  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 20.0428 points (+0.0428 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 13.121 points (+5.121 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.89 points (-0.11 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +4.5848 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +8.8724points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 12/18 = 66.66%  Backs : 1/6 = 16.67%

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LESS IS MORE: 

1-20 MUSSELBURGH

Tuesday’s Recommendation:

0.5pt LAY on ANNANGEL (around 2.2. Back as low as possible and hedge when preferential odds appear.)

Laid @ 2.33 : Hedged 0.25 @ 3.8 : P/L = +0.245points

Predicted big drift on Annangel allowed a free bet ish slant on Annangel getting beat and so the deficit is erased on cue. June is an LIM winning month! Well done if you joined me in the grind. Very much a lesson learned. Plenty of you mailing in to say you want to see LIM trading advices carrying on. Well, as I’ve said before, several BOZmailers who share my leaning toward trading these days already do daily trade on the LIM advices. It’s always a choice. Some of you asking whether I could put up more than one LIM trade per day. I’m thinking about that  in the context of BLWM philosophy. There is certainly scope for that development but the one play a day is LIM rule at the moment and for good reason. Trading emphasis however does offer scope for change but my natural caution raises its head. As I say, taking time to think. The move to daily LIM trade was a reaction to what was/is happening in the UK racing world and does seem to have been a positive. Do I keep it for those times when recovery is needed? As I say, I’m thinking on and won’t be rushed. Meantime, another lesson learning sort of day to start the new month as I try to regain my impetus as a tipster. The bank management BOZ is doing ok now. Tipster still needs to get back into his stride. He can do it, he knows he can! The opportunity for it probably doesn’t start here though. Wednesday cards remain lockdown affected and with how close we came to seeing Leicester cancelled again yesterday, predicting how the UK racing recovery will go is still hard to predict.

NH is back and that should be cause for celebration but the card is as predicted very much not a betting one. Dogmeat racing to coin my Dad’s phraseology. Absolutely essential viewing however. Watch it if you can and don’t forget to have dump radar switched on!

For BOZmail purposes I have decided to start July in similar vein to how June concluded. Taking into mind the suggestion that we might effect more than one trade a day and this race lends itself to that. The Double lay LIM trade to coin a new category! 

On paper race read, you might make this just between the front two with Night Moment slightly preferred by me on times but with the proviso that this is his first effort on turf so I have no problems lay trading him. He might attract support because of the yard and so you should work to get as low as you can but if he doesn’t, he’d strike me as an ok lay anyway at the price. The favourite is very short because of the doubt about Night Moment so again happy to take him early around 2.1 with the expectation of oscillation in his price. Both prices in truth because the nature of the race can’t rule the other two out either. Influence is Power has improvement to find but stable form and record/history suggests that is feasible whilst Fahey and two year olds FTO is well documented. You couldn’t rule him out and I’d say highly likely there will be money for him albeit that it may dry up. That money should mean depression in the prices of the front two at different times. So we play to trade both favs. Trade before the off preferred but not over scared of having to trade in running on one of the two if necessary.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on INFANT HERCULES (around 2.1 and as low as possible to be hedged when offered preferential odds)

0.15pt LAY on NIGHT MOMENT (around 3.0 or lower if you can get it to be hedged when offered preferential odds)

 LIM Scores in June:

30th:  +0.245   (+0.0428) Lay @ 2.33 : Back @ 3.8

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Frankly Darling – Entered for The Oaks (July 4)

Muker – Entered for York (Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru

English King – Entered for The Derby (July 4)

Ransom

Virgin Snow 

Collinsbay – Entered for Chepstow (July 3) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for Newbury(July 19)&York(Aug 20)&Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

Sharp Reply

Jaganory – Entered for Bath (July 2) & Chepstow (July 3)

Waseem Faris

Little Chance

Samwell (FR)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the Derby (July 4)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz