BOZmail – 1st APRIL

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

WEDNESDAY APRIL 1st  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 22.9362 points (temporarily suspended)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 10.4606 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.90 points

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BOZmail 2020 cycle current overall profit = +5.2968 points

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LESS IS MORE: (temporarily suspended)

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 23/36 = 63.88%  Backs: 9/26 = 34.61%

WEDNESDAY play in Crisis Corner

19-15 WILL ROGERS DOWNS – Race 1

Was too cautious Tuesday and missed the 12/1 winner I’d been looking for which is a bit of a pisser (well done if you ignored me and backed it anyway) but winning streak continues so I’ll stick to guns for three more days and then consider a stake increase. Encouraging signs in Racing Post of plans to resume UK racing behind closed doors on May 1st.

This is a low grade claimer again and I’m sticking to the basement fare for now whilst it’s working despite a good card at Tampa Bay as well on Wednesday. Starling looks the lay. Beaten at odds on LTO in this grade and struggling to get a head in front, has Ranger Bob to worry about here as well as Backster Ball on ratings. I like the outsider on his inside however called Oklahoma Storm representing the 3 years olds again getting weight allowance and ridden by that man Obed Sanchez who gave Spirited Lady a great rail ride. More of same here maybe if he gets out of gate again.

The fifth and last of the Disclosing Secrets articles reproduced below.

Recommendation:

£2-50 LAY on STARLING

£1 BACK on OKLAHOMA STORM

The Boz’s March US & Irish Racing LIM results:  (£100 bank)

18th:  -£4-10 (-£4-10) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 21.0

19th:   NO BET

20th:  +£2-94 (-£1-16) Lay @ 3.0

21st:   NO BET

22nd:  -£1-75 (-£2-91) Lays @ 2.25 & 10.5

23rd:  +£2-94 (+£0-03) Lay @ 1.79

24th:    -£1-52 (-£1-49) Lay @ 1.76

25th:    IRISH RACING ABANDONED

26th:    NO BET

27th:   +£2-45 (+£0-96) Lay @ 3.15

28th:   NO BET

29th:   +£1-96 (+£2-92) Lay @ 2.9

30th:   +£0-96 (+£3-88) Lay @ 1.8 : Back @ 54.0

31st:   +£1-96 (+£5-84) Lay @ 2.22

I have added the crisis corner points profit for March into the running totals which hasn’t made much of a ripple but been an encouraging test period to see if LIM will work in US Racing over a month. I shan’t be going

up to full staking levels in April but am now considering removing the LIM temporary suspended banner and counting April as a full month. Details on new bank and staking levels tomorrow once we see if I can keep the winning run going.

Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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DISCLOSING SECRETS 

Tip Number Five:THE STAGGERED ACCUMULATOR

The final instalment in the BOZ’s BEST BETTING PRACTICE series of articles commissioned by Betfair in 2004 and updated here

Save your best til last. First lesson at Writing School and I’ve stuck by it all my career. The staggered accumulator approach is not rocket science and may well be not that unfamiliar to many of you but is my ultimate tip for the serious tipster/punter and is really the thing we should all be practising all the time. And yet I still meet many who don’t. And some who have never even heard of it. And so I expand on it here.

I think possibly the reason it is lesser trumpeted and championed is that it is very flexible and adaptable to your own preferences,parameters and predilections as a punter. Whatever the comfort zone and preferences though we all love an acca and the bigger the better (so long as it’s successful of course). The difficult bit of the staggered accumulator is knowing when to stop and to some extent you could say that about any accumulator you compile. Too few selections and it’s not really an accumulator. Too many and it’s a bookmaker’s benefit. The trick of any good accumulator is getting the number of legs right and to some extent the staggered accumulator leaves that very much down to you still as you’ll see. You’ve got to know your own style before you begin perhaps and the way it was introduced to me also emphasised that it is only for those who feel confident they can pick a winner. Is that all of us? Well every punter I ever met on a going day anyways! 

It was the then director of the Lancaster Literature Festival – David Davies – who introduced it to me, the poet he had just booked to perform at his festival. We sat getting to know each other over a coffee and he kept peering at the racing page of the Guardian on his lap and saw my eyes observing that. “Don’t suppose you are interested in backing horses?” asked he innocently and thus started a fabulous exchange that ignored Literature and concentrated on the only thing in life that matters! The thud of the hoof on theTurf. He turned out to be a supremely self-confident guy who had been backing semi-professionally for years and taught me his best approach thus: the staggered accumulator. A way to bet an accumulator on events taking place on a variety of different days. “Only for the brave and the immensely self disciplined” he warned. A staking system more than anything and an immensely flexible one that utilised and optimised the ability to pick a winner regularly. He stressed that first.

“ Do you have any betting events that you study or specialise in? “ he asked. I did. It was non league football at the time. I had just started writing my weekly tipping column and knew I could get a value edge over the bookmakers who priced up with less knowledge than I had courtesy of watching matches every weekend,following the TV round-ups and tapping into the expertise of the pools panel I sat on at the time. “ It’ll work well for that “ he concluded and stressed again that it was only for those selections you had isolated through study, were sure to give you value and were in with a very strong chance of winning. “ If you are backing anything speculative, don’t bother with this approach. “ That has held true for the 30 odd years of experience that I’ve been using it in since. Saved it just for my strongest of strong bets. Arguably, it is the only bet I should ever do.

And if you haven’t worked it out already, you start with a single point on the first ‘strong leg’. “Wait until you’ve got the best you can get “ advised David. “The first leg is the most important leg. If it goes down, you are on a losing bet. No good to anyone. “ That in itself taught me how serious this was. David then explained that he always deducted the initial one point stake from the stake for the second leg. “That way you aren’t on a losing bet if the second goes down. But I still never go speculative on the second leg. I wait for the same strength fancy to come along. Time in between legs doesn’t matter. Just the bravery to stake all your winnings from the first leg on to the second. And so on until your nerve runs out or you’ve won enough. “ My first serious professional lesson was learning that it was possible as a punter to win enough! I’d always assumed winnings was an infinite!

David also explained that his general aim was to land a five leg staggered accumulator by which time using his value and strong fancy approach he had often ‘won enough’ and because staking everything on a sixth leg took enormous bottle and sometimes organisation too in spreading the stake over various bookmakers (ones who were still taking his bets). “And also because accas that go down on the sixth leg are very painful. As indeed are ones that go down on the fourth or fifth but harder to remind yourself you are not on a loser when that sixth leg goes down. “ His eyes cast aside at that point and I knew he’d been through that at least once. I was a poet. I imagined how I’d feel losing on the sixth leg. I already knew because I’d had accas not staggered in time that had gone down that way. “ Not as bad “ he added sagely. “ The one day acca is never in your bank account until it’s a won bet. You can more easily deal with losing what you never had. “ And my thirty year experience can verify the truth of that statement. I only pushed to a sixth single leg once. It lost. Most painful day’s punting I ever remember.

David explained that sometimes his staggered accas took place over several months. “ Six month’s once. The best one I ever landed. Two long priced value winners in the first four legs and tremendous self discipline to wait ages before I had the requisite strength fancy for the fifth leg. I won enough that day to suspend betting for two years. “ Boy wasn’t that something I wanted to hear!

And he sent me off to try it out and kept in touch to counsel me through my first few failed attempts. “ You might not be playing to your strengths “ he concluded after a few months of listening to my descriptions of what was going wrong. He knew I specialised in non league footy and backing against favourites in three result events. “ Good that you are getting value every leg and banning any odds ons. Bad that your strike rate is down below 40%. Need to get that up to start being successful “.

Higher than 40% SR? Yes of course. 100% SR is what is demanded really although David pointed out that the reason it was his best betting strategy is that because when it cops (“and it will if you are good at finding consistent winners and have self discipline and patience to wait for your best stuff”) you are only having to pay for those few first leg failures (“and all the households bills that have become due whilst you’ve spent so much time studying form when you should have been working!”).

The day I landed my first one was in the early days of Betfair and I’d already taken David’s advice and played to my strengths. That meant perming my acca. Spreading my percentage chance whilst accepting a lesser return.I could consistently pick winners but hadn’t been able to get my overall SR above 40%. Made sense to me then and still does. Still aiming at outsiders of three in non league football via the medium of the FA Cup. I started with Evesham to beat Rushden & Diamonds in the final qualifying round of that year at 4.5.  Banked my one point initial stake and placed 3.5 points on Histon to beat Swindon in Round 1 at 4.0. Staked the full 14 points on Barrow to beat Brentford in Round 2 at 4.0 and then the full 56 points on Histon to beat Leeds in the same round (but played on a different day because it was live on the telly) at 6.0 which took me to 336 points after four legs and it was at that point my nerve started to waver and I started taking David’s advice and playing to my strengths. I could have stopped at that point of course. Perhaps should have. That’s where the flexibility, the knowing when to stop, the choices come in to the approach. Each to their own. Know your self, your psychology, your reasons for doing this anyway. I wanted to land a five timer. To see if I had the bottle for a sixth. I pressed on but I started spreading my bets. I chose the round two replays to do my permed approach in and picked just two winners – Kettering to beat Notts County at 2.37 and Blyth Spartans to beat Bournemouth at 3.5. Had I just picked these two, I would have just landed a 3,582/1 six-timer whereas my permed approach with its fifteen losing strands meant a 796/1 return to my original 1 point stake which of course I also still held in my bank. Best bet I’d ever landed at that time and a testament to my maths skills aswell as my ability to hold my nerve and organize the necessary. David reckoned I would go on well from there!

Isn’t entirely what happened. I have logged my move away from non league football betting and tipping in these pages before. I never landed a strong one therein again. Made through to third leg a few times and four once but started to rack up double figures of losers and felt the calling to switch to my specialisms of now in women’s tennis and NH horse racing. Made a few early doors in the tennis continuing with the permed thread (usually after 3 legs) but none to match that early return. Have been on the NH case for many years with a fair few  smallish price successes and more first leg losers than I care to remember. I did however stumble on a new secret a while back that I’ve been using this approach for and practised it on 12/11/17 as fodder for this article. Prepared as I am to reveal the secret now which is another that is perhaps not that secret but still works very well on the exchanges. 

It takes place every time the ground at Ffos Las is heavy or soft/heavy which is a lot of the time during the NH season! Been watching the track since its inception and started to form the view that heavy ground form was holding up well there and it was throwing up several long priced outsiders – sometimes from several candidate runners from pre-race form. Then I started observing a trait I’ve noticed working well elsewhere and one often touted by horse folk and jockeys – especially those in Ireland where I visit on a regular basis. Bog trotters they call them there and that’s horses with a high knee action. The more pronounced the better. In either leg. Especially at the business end of races or when the pace is on. It’s one of my personal statistical records now and I keep records for all horses who run or have run at Ffos Las in particular as when I first started looking for Bog trotters in the UK, I found them winning regularly at Ffos Las. More so than anywhere else. Because the ground is more often heavy there for NH racing than anywhere else! All makes sense.

On 12/11/17 I did my pre-race analysis of the card and came up with my pre-race lists of horses to back at favourable prices and those ‘non bog trotters’ safe to lay at short odds. Armed with that pre-race gen which I use to form a trading market on all races I want to play in (including copious in running hedging activity as is my want), I also start then looking for the horse with the most pronounced high knee action in running and take it on a staggered accumulator approach. Sometimes perming but more often not as I’m already playing for steady returns with my trading. The staggered acca is my attempt at a big land and on 12/11/17 – whilst it wasn’t perfect – I landed a decent one and it’s my third best here since I started it as a regular approach back in 2013.

I reproduce my notes from the day here:

RACE 1:  No play in the novice hurdle. Too many unrated and unraceds on the ground and whilst I can wade in with the best knee action horse I see in running, I prefer to use the first race as a sighter to prove the ground is heavy enough and you’ll remember that David’s advice is that the first leg is the most important. In a 7 race card no need to rush it. I had also 

form studied the fifth race as a likely no play with the odds on fav Prime Venture deemed the likely winner. This proved a correct call. Meanwhile the first was won by Nigel Twiston Davies’ Angels Antics which had a decent high knee action (along with a few others that were well placed) so my sighter was a positive and I was ready with Race 2 as my first leg.

RACE 2: My Less is More nap race of the day as studied the night before in which I was keen to lay the tissue fav Joe Farrell who hailed from the Rebecca Curtis yard – a stable very much on the cold list going in. Looked a competitive race and JF had no stand out heavy ground form. The main one for that pre-race was Billy Bronco but the market sent him off 11/8 fav whilst the other on my possible pre-race list was Solighoster well supported pre race and sent off 5/1 but trading at 10.5 in running when in third place and advertising to me a distinct and pronounced high knee action in both front legs (where of course it matters most).

With Billy Bronco not so convincing in running on that score despite being on my pre-race shortlist, I plumped for Solighoster as my 10.5 first leg. Bingo. In he stormed, the only one not struggling in the final furlong. Joe Farrell finished second having loomed up 2 furlongs out but totally unable to stay with the relentless gallop Solighoster kept up. Something you see a lot at Ffos Las. Finishing win distances are also a stat worth looking at for betting purpose when the ground is heavy. Often massive.

So I’d secured my Less is More nap and banked my Staggered acca stake to ensure a winning day. Followed David’s advice by starting on my strongest study leg of the day opposing the favs and utilised my secret weapon – the watch for the best high knee action in running – and bagged excellent value. 9.5 points to take to leg 2.

RACE 3: I was against Absolute Power before the off at 3.75 second fav. Rebecca Curtis again and decidedly dodgy on heavy. Favourite Wandrin Star also offered nothing on paper form study but wasn’t conclusively a lay until I saw the in running where his knee wasn’t pronounced. Laid him at 3.0. So a great trade position already so long as I was right about the front two in a 9 horse field. Four others had stood out as possibles pre race and three

confirmed with their knee action when seen in running. Mulcahys Hill – Juge et Parti  and Dark Invader who finished in that order 1st to 3rd at SPS of 5/2,4/1 and 20/1. Sadly I hadn’t done a pre race tricast but I did back Mulcahys Hill at 4.0 in running when in front under a secure Gavin Sheehan ride (he has good stats at the course) and I played all 9.5 points singly on him despite wavering toward a perm at 3 points on all three. The highest knee action and Sheehan’s stats swayed me. Was also backed in the market before the race and returned second fav. My 9.5 points was now 38 points. Looking good!

RACE 4: Only one pre-race negative in this 10 runner field. I laid Gamain at 5/1 certain he would hate the ground as his paper form showed. He actually ran poor first half of the race but stayed on toward the end without ever looking like winning and finished a creditable third. No high knee action. It’s not infallible. No reason for why he ran as well as he did. Didn’t affect my result.Whelan on Steel Native (another great rider at the course with good stats) who started at the back and came with a beautifully steady run knees almost up in his throat at times. SP 12/1 and I took 38 points at 19.0 in running and that’s where I took a unilateral decision that I had won enough. 722 points. I wasn’t playing fifth race anyways and reckoned I’d had my share of the fortune of the day. Bit like on Tipping point on the telly. Was offered the chance to go on for the mega money but declined it. That’s me. Ever cautious and never greedy.

RACE 5: Won by Prime Venture at 8/11 as expected. Evan Williams’ only winner of the day when he’d been touted to go through the card. I was strongly against his odds on Theatre Form in the last based on pre race study but stayed firm and closed my satchel for the day.

RACE 6: Just six runners and my pre-race was strong against second fav Shows over who went off 2/1. My in running observation cast doubt on 6/4 fav Bonobo of Evan Williams but despite the other four runners all showing good high knee actions, I stuck to my decision and stayed out. If I had played I’d like to say I plonked all 722 points on Bredon Hill Lad at 4.33 and so was carrying 3,126 points onto leg five but in truth I would probably have played 180.5 points on each of the four and not showed much further plus. My tentative pre-race pick had been Little Jimmy who finished 4th at SP 11/1. The two favs were both pulled up further confirming the strength of my ‘secret’ approach. It doesn’t always do this well but I’m not surprised now when it clicks at Ffos Las.

RACE 7: I might have been playing 781 points on this last race if I’d permed race six and I would probably have split between three of the five leaving out the Williams trained Theatre Stage (who finished last) and outsider of five Timely Gift (who finished 1st at 14/1). No overly pronounced high knee for him. My in running vote went to Flanagan’s Field who’d also been strong pre-race and finished second at 6/1. What a near miss five timer that would have proved!

What it did prove was that no system or secret approach is infallible and that David Davies was right when he said I should play to my strengths. Caution and knowing when I’ve won enough are two of my strongest. Along with acceptance that 40% SR on single selection winners – even on an approach as consistently strong as this – is not on my CV. Not even after 30 years of practice. When I string three strong winners together in a staggered acca and am approaching 1000 points profit, I stop. Might have gone on to make more here as being conservative I might have included Timely Gift in my fifth leg perm seeing as his price was so long. Might have lost the lot.

The staggered acca is designed to bring a big return for little outlay. It takes practice and playing to your own personal strengths plus patience and discipline and good research and all the usual winner finding skills. But I think I have added to David’s version. It doesn’t always have to be staggered over six months.