BOZmail – 1st October

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY OCTOBER 1st  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.666 points after month 9 (+37.666 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +12.5647 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +57.812 points

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LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY 

3-00 SEDGEFIELD

Torn between two races on Day 1 of the NH season and have decided to play both with the LIM preferred being this rematch of the Perth July encounter where our old friend Nietzsche got up under a cool ride from Henry Brooke and meets on same terms here. Reunited with Brooke after unseating Danny Cook LTO that was an indication that Nietzsche’s jumping isn’t yet pristine but he has decent speed on the level and that can count for a lot at Sedgefield. Tonto’s Spirit is closely matched but very much a Cartmel summer horse these days and that tight and idiosyncratic track is where he tends to do his winning now. The main swinger for me though is how the Caius Marcius form has stacked up. Nietzsche’s smooth win over him (admittedly receiving weight) is indication that the Greatwood hurdle form does put him in as the class in this race.

Saint Freule is decent LIM cover on his Chase debut should Nietzsche’s jumping again be an issue.

Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on TONTO’S SPIRIT (around 2.7 ; no greater than 3.0)

0.25pt BACK on NIETZSCHE

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 164/251 = 65.33% :   BACKS: 48/170 = 28.23%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.71 points. 

No.21 (Leg 1)

4-00 SEDGEFIELD – LAY on MURPHY’S LAW – 0.5pt (around 1.6)

Got a small fancy for Todhunter’s Ringaringarosie who I am going to paddock watch to see how fit and ready he is. Well treated and likes the course and receives two and a half stone from Murphy’s Law who I have no problem taking on with a name like that! Murphy’s Law certainly owes me a few bob! Out again quickly after a facile success at Perth on the Heavy and this will be tougher and quicker.He’s a very short price. Dangers also in Instant Replay,Quick Brew and Maxed out King so a worthy attempt to get a staggered acca underway after we ended September with a welcome winner.An omen I hope for a better month to come. I have also published the Sedgefield Shortlist for tomorrow and will be attending what is an interesting card. Shout if you haven’t received this but would like to.

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer  

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Miss Celestial 

Deirdre – Entered at Longchamp (Oct 6) & Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

Lord of the Lodge 

HORSE TO TRADE/FOLLOW on SUNDAY:

5-25 MUSSELBURGH – KAIZER  @ 5/2 – 0.1pt BACK – WON

(Backed @ 3.7- Hedged before the off @ 2.12 = P/L : +0.158)

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz