BOZmail – 1st SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THE BOZmail @ Flushing Meadow

For the US OPEN WOMEN’S TENNIS

DAY SEVEN:

SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 1st  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.0715 points after month 9 (+37.0715 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +10.1282 points

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LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

2-40 WORCESTER

August not the greatest month but a late rally to ensure we stay creeping forward.

Wasn’t supposed to be bothering with horses but encouraged by Saturday and my tennis LIM would have been a speculative one so I come instead to my absolute favourite BOZmail horse of the past three years’ chase debut at Worcester. The redoubtable Lady Markby. She was a marvellous bumper winner and novice hurdler for the sheet. We landed two mighty punts and didn’t give much back in the years after as she went as a broodmare and came back a recalcitrant madam who still ran a super race at Market Rasen in August 2018 but has done all sorts including refusing to race since. We meet her here at 33/1 in a five horse race with the benefit of a wind op and with the Emma Lavelle yard hitting form on Saturday including winning our race with a chase debutante in ManoftheMountain. Could we see Lightning strike twice in two days?

The race is probably a set up for Go another one who is fabulously short at 4/9 but has to give weight, is from stable out of form and faces another horse we know in Notnow Seamus who is a needs to brush up his jumping horse from the Skelton yard who cruised into contention behind De Plotting Shed before duly putting in the atypically sloppy jump for a Skelton schooled horse and falling. Stand up and he’ll give the champ something to think about.

Then there’s Lady M who if she’s in the mood and takes to the game, could bring that feisty determination at the finish to the fore and run the front two down. Worth a punt to start the new month.

Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on GO ANOTHER ONE (around 1.44 : no greater than 1.7)

0.1pt BACK on LADY MARKBY

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This month plays so far:

31st:             +0.145 (+1.6205) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 8.5

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 153/229 = 66.81% :   BACKS: 44/155 = 28.38%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.2339 points.

THE FINAL 2019 Staggered  Acca number 18: (LEGS 4&5)

US OPEN WOMEN’s TENNIS 3rd ROUND MATCH on SATURDAY:

Donna VEKIC to beat Yulia PUTINTSEVA @ 1.43 – WON

US OPEN WOMEN’s TENNIS 4th ROUND MATCH on SUNDAY:

Ash BARTY to beat Qiang Wang @ 1.26 : stake is 0.2339 points

Hardly a value bet and I might be wishing I waited if it don’t win but it is pretty grade A on form with a 2-0 back score. Wang did eventually assert v Ferro but looked a world 18 rank in doing so. Barty ought to outclass and outthink on her top two form which is starting to shine back through again now. Tennis has been a strong first week overall but without spectacular returns and a dwindling portfolio position unless Cori Gauff pulls the shock tonight. We might see a wind down next week and maybe one or two horses will come back into the frame. We’ll see. 

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US OPEN PORTFOLIO:

SERENA (backed at 6.8 – laid at 6.4) Current P/L = +0.6 points

IGA SWIATEK                                                                ELIMINATED

CORI GAUFF                                                                  = +7.5 points

SOFIA KENIN                                                                 ELIMINATED

DANIELLE COLLINS                                                    ELIMINATED

REST OF THE FIELD                                                    = 0 points  

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7) 

Miss Celestial – Entered at Curragh (Sep 28)

Deirdre – Entered for Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (Sep 14)&Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

James Watt – Entered for Ayr Gold Cup (Sep 21)

Lord of the Lodge 

Mum’s Tipple – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 12) & (Sep 14)-Newbury (Sep 21)

Lady Mascara

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz