BOZmail – 31st MAY & JUNE 1st

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

FRIDAY MAY 31st & SATURDAY JUNE 1st  2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stands at 40.8925 points after month 5

LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

8-20 STRATFORD

Just another small final play in May now that I’ve put myself in a bit of breathing space with those LIM trades. A few have contacted asking about trading and I have responded by repeating a much mentioned mantra of the BOZmail now which is trading is the real way to guarantee long term betting profit from gambling for those who want small and regular (and occasionally you can land big at it as we would have done had Laura prevailed this morning). Makes sense when you think of that old adage that the only people really making a profit from betting are bookmakers. Long term. Largely true. By thinking as part bookmakers ourselves in the modern world, that opportunity opened up to all of us. Apply yourself to practice developing your trading style and you’ll join that club right enough. Trading is a creative practice that can be done a myriad of ways and each will have their way even more so than different style gamblers and different style tipsters. Practice is what makes perfect and I will always throw in starting points for trades like I did on Wednesday – especially when our fixed odds work is getting a bit stale as it was in May.

In that vein, I have five trades for you to practice on for the Saturday sheet I post here as my Derby Day special published a day in advance due to my being away from tomorrow.

But first the last LIM of May and another very small play in the Hunter Chase at Stratford. Risk a Fine is being asked to carry a welterweight here and whilst he is the youngster and a solid proposition always in the sphere, he takes on four here who are all competitive with him and make his 2/1 lay price value. Crazy Jack’s stable are the rich vein of form candidate and so he might be my value back but I have no wish to rock bank now achieved for May so i will be active in a small interest lay only.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on RISK A FINE (around 3.0: No greater than 3.3)

SATURDAY PLAYS:

DERBY DAY SPECIAL TRADING ADVICES/PRACTICE STARTING POINT SPECIALS:

1/ 4-30 EPSOM: SIR DRAGONET to win @ 10/3

                             HIROSHIMA – 0.1pt WIN & PLACE

Not a vintage Derby with O’Brien fielding over half the runners. He can literally carve the race to suit. His Sir Dragonet is the classiest of his on paper and looks a worthy favourite. The Boz will back before the off and hedge in running though. The fun play is on Hiroshima who might finish last but is just the tiniest possibility of being the biggest shock winner ever. Likely to get outpaced early he is the only true stayer in the field and that has been known to spring a surprise Derby before now. You will probably get 1000/1 on the exchanges before the off. Take to 0.1pt and 0.1pt point an extended place (first five market?) and try trading both in play if you need practice. Might end a loser but for small money in 13 horse field I think it is value and I did see something of that Derby winner requirement in him first time I saw him. Something not entirely absent in the Lingfield trial albeit that he was down the field (but only ten lengths behind Van Dyck). Just a feeling in my water that Epsom might just suit and that if there is a furious pace, he could be the one picking off wall hitters in the final furlong as the pace collapses.Has happened in a Derby before now. Fun bet if nowt else. Only day of the year I allow myself it!

2/ 1-45 WORCESTER: SHOAL BAY

Should do better chasing left handed. Back before the off and practice hedging in running if you are keen to build trading into your portfolio.

Same for Moffat’s three at Hexham.

3/ 3-15 MORNING ROYALTY

4/ 3-50 MONDLICHT

5/ 7-00 ALTRUISM

First and last were taken out at Cartmel and with the stable still firing, I’d be hopeful of each giving a good run. Morning Royalty is especially well in if he is primed and he will benefit from rain. Mondlicht is like Munsaab. I was lead to believe he’d been retired. Further possibility that we can expect a run at a price that might make trading profitable.

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This month plays so far:

1st:   -0.455 (-0.455) LAY @ 2.82

2nd:  -0.3    (-0.755) LAY @ 1.6

3rd:   -0.628 (-1.383) LAY @ 2.76 : BACK @ 34.0

4th:   -0.8    (-2.183) LAY @ 3.4 : BACK @ 7.0

5th:   +0.095 (-2.088) LAY @ 1.95 : BACK @ 9.0

6th:   -0.3    (-2.388) LAY @ 2.2

7th:   +0.095 (-2.293) LAY @ 1.94 : BACK @ 5.1

8th:   +0.19  (-2.103) BACK @ 1.95

9th:   -0.825  (-2.928) LAY @ 3.25 : BACK @ 8.4

10th: NO PLAY DAY

11th:  +0.195 (-2.733) LAY @ 2.92

12th:  -0.24  (-2.973) LAY @ 1.6

13th:  +0.52 (-2.453) BACK @ 6.2

14th:   -0.25 (-2.703) LAYS @ 3.5 & 3.9 : BACK @ 4.5

15th:   +0.196(-2.507) LAY @ 4.0

16th:   +0.996 (-1.511) Lay @ 2.62 : BACK @ 9.0

17th:   +0.196 (-1.315) Lay @ 5.00

18th:   -0.46 (-1.775) Lay @ 2.24 : BACK @ 11.0

19th:   +2.19 (+0.415) Lay @ 1.56 : BACK @ 17.0  

20th:   +0.145 (+0.56)   Lay @ 3.5 : BACK @ 6.0  

21st:   -0.332 (+0.228) Lay @ 2.66

22nd:  +0.294 (+0.522) Lay @ 2.4   

23rd:   +0.48 (+1.002) BACK @ 1.96

24th:    -0.215 (+0.787) Lay @ 1.86  

25th:    +0.196(+0.983) Lay @ 2.76

26th:    -0.585 (+0.398) Lay @ 1.97 : BACK @ 3.0

27th:    +0.094(+0.492) Lay @ 2.6 : BACK @ 21.0

28th:     -0.28 (+0.212) Lay @ 1.7

29th:     +0.3284(+0.5404) Lay @ 1.9: BACK @45.0 (traded in running)

             +1.8894(+2.4298) Lay @1.38 (tennis trade in play)

30th:      -0.08 (+2.3498) Lay @ 1.4

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 107/159 = 67.29% :   BACKS: 27/101 = 26.73%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

Shoal Bay – Entered at Worcester (June 1)

Commodore Barry

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Moonlight Spirit – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Sir Dragonet- Entered for Derby (June 1), King Edward (June 21) & Eclipse (July 6)

Raise You

Charl Brune

Barney Roy – Entered for Queen Anne(June 18) & Prince of Wales (June 19)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points.

Staggered acca number 11: (LEG 1)

Will shout when I’m ready to start another go at the acca

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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THE BOZ’s 2019 FRENCH OPEN OUTRIGHT PORTFOLIO:

PLAYER               PRICE TAKEN HEDGED AT     CURRENT P/L

Simona HALEP1pt LAY@5.6
-4.8
ANISIMOVA0.1pt BACK@120.00.1pt LAY @ 70.0+5.8
QIANG WANG0.1pt BACK @340.0ELIMINATED
Iga SWIATEK0.1pt BACK @151.00.1pt LAY @ 90.0+6.9
VAN UYTVANCK0.1pt BACK @1000ELIMINATED
Polona HERCOG0.1pt BACK @10000.1pt LAY @310.0+69.7
LauraSIEGEMUND0.1pt BACK @1000ELIMINATED
ROF

+0.8







Anisimova and Swiatek both won well and can be hoped to get past Begu and Puig respectively in next round. Loss of Siegemund a blow and Azarenka option also extinguished but still life in the portfolio and the ROF is healthy. I will be bowing out now due to holiday.

Main thing for me will be to still watch Halep matches to effect my hedge on her. Crucial that.

Confident it will happen at some point. She is not bossing her matches totally and will do so even less in second week. Shall also bust a gut shouting for Polona tomorrow and may do more hedging on her should she dominate against Stephens. Here’s hoping!! Confident of an overall profit without too much more work. Decided against doubling the lay on Halep however and introducing new names. Won’t be around to supervise that. Will shout home what I have! Good luck with what you do, especially those practicing trading. No better practice arena than a tennis outrights portfolio in the slams. See you in time for the final next Saturday! Usually have an opinion on that.