BOZmail – 1st APRIL

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

MONDAY APRIL 1st 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stands at 36.0395 points after month 4

LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

3-55 LUDLOW

Well, we haven’t had much in the way of bad luck lately but the final day of March was that. Sadly Queen Olivia wasn’t quite fit for the race as the betting showed us. Backed down to 7/2 from that original 8/1 but then drifted back out before the off as they do when the stable or paddock watchers know something we don’t. Even so, she looked like she might have it when Virak clouted that fence and it was at that point I started trading my position in running. Anyone else caught on to that yet? The beauty of the exchanges is that that is always an option for you and I got some 3.0 on Virak to offset my 1.57 lay and I laid some Queen Olivia at 1.98 against my original 7.2 back. And all because of that late drift on QO back out to 7s before the off with Virak also shortening back into 1.65 having drifted out to 2.0. They knew as old John McCrirrick used to say but these days we do too and can do something about it. I didn’t green out because the race was showing me that Queen Olivia might hold out and have enough of a lead. Sadly, she tired though. They knew. I still lost on the race but only 25% of my original liability and at the cost of around 25% of my projected winnings. I settle on here still from the race starting position. That trading is such a personal thing, it seems pointless logging that on here. I do like to share though on occasion. Usually when I think we’ve been unlucky. Feel free to share your plays too any time. It helps dispel the disappointment quickly to get back to a clear head for the next play.

Which is this four runner Handicap Chase at Ludlow taking on an odds on again. Timoteo moves up from Novice Handicaps with a further 10lb penalty which gives a challenging test against Dell Oro on his class drop and Valseur Du Granval – an old experienced campaigner getting over a stone in weight and ran well LTO to suggest a return to form. On an attractive mark. Railroad Junkie also not a total no-hoper with good collateral form against Valseur Du Granval. Worse at the weights and stable out of kilter though so wouldn’t ultimately expect him to win.

Quite a similar sort of play to yesterday but without the value dark horse fancy. Dell Oro is a value price but has questions to answer (looks better at 2m 4f) and is more of a risk than QO was yesterday so in general I’ve decided to play more conservative (given that I was also unsuccessful ultimately yesterday) and bank last month's profits which didn’t achieve the targets I was hoping for in the last few days but were nevertheless decent and worth protecting for a little while yet. As ever with me, it is as much about bank management and getting the prices and money right as it is about finding winners.

RECOMMENDATION:

0.3pt LAY on TIMOTEO (around 1.95 ; not greater than 2.2)

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This month plays so far:

30th:     +0.144 (+9.2015) LAY @2.2 : BACK @ 6.2

31st:      -0.442 (+8.7595) LAY @1.57 : BACK @ 7.2  

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 75/106 = 70.75% :   BACKS: 17/68 = 25%

HORSES OF INTEREST TO TRADE NEXT TIME OUT:

Uno Valoroso

Southfield Vic

Tokaramore

Tiffin Top

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 7: (LEG 1)

Will shout as soon as the next good thing comes along.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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