BOZmail – 1st February

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

FRIDAY FEBRUARY 1st 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 25.5 points after month 1

 

LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

3-25 LINGFIELD

I’ve written to a few of you this week after the invitation to debate how things were going was taken up and one of the things we discussed was how important prices and the market were these days in deciding what to do in a race. Never better illustrated than with that foggy farce at Southwell on Thursday. You’ll remember that I indicated that I was against the topweights and that the clear indication was that Sandridge Lad was held by Scale Force. And so it proved. The early tissue posted the surface debutante Coolagh Magic as rampant fav and thus my lay – not wanting to rack up any losses on final day of the month. How that backfired as the market totally rejected Coolagh Magic who then went and proved that the early tissue boys had it right. A 6/4 lay loss on him I can take but the 4/1 loss is not acceptable. At the prices on the off, the lay was Sandridge Lad or nothing at all but of course I never said that and so must take the blame. Which I do. Costly omission. I hope a few of you did work that out for yourselves and to those who didn’t I promise to make it up in the weeks ahead.

I will be scrupulous for the foreseeable in specifying price parameters about recommendations that I put up. I have done this before and ceased only when it became tedious as all those reading all understood the power they had to interpret what I say. I recognise a new audience here of whom some are less experienced at my way of playing. I think soon now I will be introducing the promo BET ONLY WHEN THE PRICE IS RIGHT. Price makes more difference than selection these days so only right that I should do that. Starting February 2019!

Meanwhile the weather continues to dominate and despite the calamitous end to January 2019 on the all weather, that is where we stay to start the new month. Not expecting Chepstow to beat the weather.

I really liked this race at Lingfield with knowing a bit about Spark Plug who beat Verdana Blue LTO and that is form I like. Is going up in distance along with Grey Britain but has the services of a returning to UK Oisin Murphy and that’s worth a few points on anybody’s rating!

The form of the three who have experience at the distance is fairly muddled but I know Rossa Ryan’s mount Stargazer aswell. Is the work horse for Lady Buttons and seeing as how that one one railed us the other day, a few points on the ratings for Stargazer too. That said, it is Lord George’s form of these three that stands out most and the booking of a returning Ryan Moore there also looks significant. Lord George famous as the political mover and shaker behind the UK’s last attempt at ethnic cleansing back in the 1700s – an act for which he was tried for treason but found not guilty! Because of the ferocity of what became known as the anti Catholic Gordon Riots which he was charged with inciting, they flung him in prison anyway. A practice we could perhaps do with reigniting in the modern day political nonsense we find ourselves in! Let’s hope it doesn’t spoil horse racing. The weather is doing enough of a job on that! Hence we lay Grey Britain which defines both out weather and our present political climate rather aptly I feel!

Posting early again despite yesterday’s blip. That practice remains sound to give us chance to beat descending back prices and ascending lay prices. And I’ve inserted the omitted BOZmail rule about taking care of lays that go on a significant drift AND specified price parameter on Friday’s play. Slight case of after the horse has bolted maybe but better be sure we don’t fall foul again.

 

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on GREY BRITAIN (at around 4.0 and no greater than 5.0)

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 40/53 = 75.47% :   BACKS: 7/32 = 21.87%

 

*******************************************************************

NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 15.0375 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently *

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars

Itchy Feet *

Frodon *

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons *

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for Sandown (Feb 2) & Leopardstown (Feb 3)

Benatar *

Captain Zebo – Entered for Carlisle (Feb 4)

Magic of Light*  – Entered for Punchestown (Feb 10)

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication * – Entered for Sandown & Wetherby (Feb 2)

Valtor

Ruby Yeats

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Sandown (Feb 2)

Cliffs of Dover*

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera

Happy Diva

Elegant Escape

 

****************************************************************

 

STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.625 points.

Staggered acca number 5: (LEG 2)

 

Awaiting the weapons grade selection to follow on from Leg 1. Will shout as soon as it appears

***********************************************************

Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.