BOZmail – DECEMBER 1st

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the trial of the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet and kicking off straight away with a staggered acca football bet following on from a successful run with non-league football again (after a two year break) on the old BOZmail for the 2018/19 season. Staggered acca advices will not happen every day and are only a losing bet if the first leg goes down. How you play them and whether you have the nerve to keep plonking winnings from previous legs on to the next leg when it occurs will be up to you. As will the job of getting best price always be. The Boz can only ever advise and the advice is always get the best price you can – for backs and lays. I won’t be stipulating prices in my recommendations  and they will be settled on the sheet stats by the arbiter who will work mainly from SP. But you and I both know that serious punters seek to get better than SP whether it be from BOG prices or by trading on the exchanges. The Boz mainly uses the latter especially on LIM longshots and obviously for lays. These messages will always be posted early – often the night before the event – in order for you to assess whether the price is likely to be massacred as good tips often are.The battle with bookmakers is always on and generally the earlier you take your price the better especially if trade tipsters are forecasting similar outcome. Occasionally it will be worth leaving taking a price until near the off and I will indicate when I think this is so. Always there is the option of taking a price in running. I will indicate when I am likely to do this also on certain horses whom it favours.

 

Remember always the BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically always with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period. Neither win all the time. Losses of course do happen but the beauty of LESS IS MORE philosophy is that losses never get out of control and can with belief and patience always be recovered. And turned into an overall plus. The word belief is not used lightly. Not many things I believe in but that is the absolute. BOZ’s religion.

 

On that sombre note, let the fun begin!

 

SATURDAY DECEMBER 1st 2018

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

 

LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

12-10 NEWBURY

Henderson’s horses showing a bit of malaise at the moment especially those without the run so I did look hard at the Fighting Fifth with a view to getting the champion hurdler beaten by his young Irish pretender Samcro. There is some credence in that but also doubt that Samcro might ultimately need further at the top level and also his last two runs haven’t been trouble free. You can’t argue with Buveur D’air’s ten on the bounce and he does look likely winner on paper unless he is subject to stable malaise and/or Samcro has done the required leap forward in the improvement stakes which is imminently possible but also not a value option overall.

I decided better to take on Lust for Glory who although with a run under belt may also suffer stable malaise but more significantly must give an eight pound weight turnaround to Posh Trish from LTO and Nicholls not one to come back to the table unless he smells the sweet scent of revenge. Listed bumper form on the ground and entitled to be much closer this time coming to the last and the eight pounds ought to help turn the 3 and a quarter lengths round up the run in. Cobden v Nico in a driving finish also favours the Nicholls bull.

Better LIM prospect also because Passing Call is hardly out of it and is levels yer devils on my figures with Lust for Glory and so provides good cover should Posh Trish fail to fire.

 

Recommendation:

0.5pt LAY on LUST FOR GLORY

0.25pt BACK on POSH TRISH

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

(remember that stake of successful first leg bet is always returned directly to bank and that stake for leg two is simply the winnings from leg one. From then on, both stake and winnings constitute next leg stake (which can sometimes be split) until acca is completed. That ensures all latter legs are free bets played with bookmakers money and optimise winnings without risking initial stake)    

 

STAGGERED FOOTBALL ACCA for SATURDAY December 1st:

FIRST LEG:

Southern League Central Division:

Redditch to beat Kings Lynn – 0.25 pts

Redditch-Kings Lynn draw  – 0.2 pts

 

Play conservative with these until bank contains winnings from a successful acca.The Redditch boys had a tough one Tuesday night away at League leaders Kettering and the Linnets, despite an uninspiring home draw to Bedworth LTO, do have sparky away form this season and are in general a current in form outfit lying well above Reds in table. Not in current form table mind. Redditch are third in that and the effort v Kettering not to be underestimated. Psychologically felt like a win and was celebrated as such with that last gasp equaliser which was the long vaunted first draw of the season. And you know the old adage about buses! Plastic pitch also in their favour again here and playing with such passion and verve under a manager who believes and has got that message across to his players one and all.But I cover the draw aswell here as part of my cautious start. As all BOZmail regulars will know however, the chant at the moment is very much…….

 

GO REDDITCH!!

 

Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

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